New TA/Charting, page-15912

Month now closed. Trades closed. Opportunity to look back and further look at the PA. Thanks Mods ! If we first look at my VA and PA chart below we can see a mismatch between starting to develop in the (percentile adjusted ) traded volumes and price relationship in late April. We can also see an escalation of this through to around 12 May. This mismatch was subsequently smacked down with an additional 38 million shorts added to the aggregate. Perhaps some CR and M and A taking place but I also the timing - being the 3rd Friday of a trading Month for contract expiration purposes is also potentially important. For me at least I find this trading period also makes the queried transaction(s) additionally interesting. Think contango and backwardation and consider the hypothetical below together with data which currently shows an increase in open market future contracts:

" In early May 2025 a supply chain merchant (SPM) agrees to sell 100 tons of spodumene for delivery in 12 months time being May 2026 at what would then be the prevailing (forward) price. Our SPM is now exposed to risk of falling spodumene prices when it comes time to physically ship the produced commodity in 12 months time. To derisk this forward dated transfer the SPM can go to market and seek to sell futures contracts with a May 2026 expiry at the price available today being May 2025. Or they can derisk through the equities market if they can not secure an opposing futures contract. If the price in the physical market (continues to) decreases over time any losses that would or could have occurred at point of physical transfer have essentially been fully or partially offset by a gain in the futures or equities short side market"

And the same in reverse. No additional profits. Nothing untoward. Risk mitigation 101! GLTAH and Stay safe. Enjoy the weekend.

My opinion only of course!