There was a comment made in an earlier post about the fact that not many of the usual chartists post on red days or in a drifting market, so I see that as an invitation to post something. Happy for the debate. Get the old juices going. As usual, with me the following will be a series of graphs, a screenshot from Bloomberg and my commentary. Take it or leave it, I don't care.
This first graph is my workings on LTR. Did some work on it over the w'end. Have cleaned it up a bit since my last post.
As I see LTR, we are in a holding pattern. None of the recent announcements have excited the market that much (not at all). The following explains what I have on the graph and why. The orange line in the middle of the data is just an intellectual curiosity for me (started off as a trend line and has broken up and below, is relatively symmetrical, although widening as P increases). I'm looking to see how far this will go. The aqua trend line is the trend that formed from the last major push in P since about Sept last year. P has respected this trend (not broken down below it). The green horizontal line is the current all time high (ATH). The most recent pinkish/purple box looks at the most recent peak to recent low. This trend is now 42 days old (7 day weeks not trading days). On average the average lengths of these boxes has been about 35-37 days. We are now past the average. To me this is just consolidation. Also seen in the slope of the RSI below and volume generally below average. The two circles highlight that P is respecting the 20 day EMA (I don't like the SMA). With where we are at now, I wouldn't be surprised to see P drift lower, however, with the convergence of the 20EMA, the trend line and support at 36.5 I can't see it falling below that level (however, nothing is certain in trading).
Once price does wake up the green zig zaggy line is how I see price moving to the upside. At the current P, it needs to break ATH at 0.385 then break 0.50 (a psychological barrier). P has already attempted 0.385 three times but failed. To do so will be an increase in P of around 25%, the average leg up for a significant push is around 50% +/- 5%. P then retraces on average 16-18% (see a previous post). The 50% increase therefore puts P in area of the upper 2 yellow lines (depends on where you want to take your measurement from). All in all, I think P will have to push up to the 0.385-0.50 area, push through it, possibly reach the upper yellow line and take a breather before continuing on.
That's long winded but that's the way I look at things and explain myself.
All the above is for nought should things turn pear-shaped in the world economy, and I'm a bit of a contrarian.
Round 2
The following graph is the LIT ETF. This little gem is raved about on green days, even green days that might be below the previous day's high/low. For what reason, I have no idea. I'm not going to spend too much time here. Great you say!
Once again you will see my little box enclosing P action. Obviously in a sideways move and have been for quite some time. False breakout and breakdown identified with the two circles. Price is waiting for the broader market to provide some direction. This thing could trend higher, however, I would not be surprised to see it move lower to at least the 20EMA. Who knows here!!
Round 3
The following is also another darling, none other than TSLA. Here we go...
No sorry, I didn't screenshot my TSLA chart. Nothing that much interesting happening on TSLA too. If it continues in its current direction I suspect that it will find support at some level between 700-750. But, i don't care as I'm not invested in it. And as always DYOR!!
Round 4
Something a little different.
The above is on Bloomberg as of a few minutes ago. Why is this important? Well because the political and economic spheres drive a lot of what impacts decision making processes and in particularly liquidity in the market. Great banner proclaiming 1.9T in stimulus. However, this is tempered by what is written below re bond yields and inflation. Oh, and just for Cashie there was a great story on an electric truck. Sweet you say.
With long term interest rates going up, money will flow from the stock market to the bond market. This will have a significant impact on liquidity in the market, however I suspect that this has another 12 months to play out yet. Politically, the Biden administration won't want to be seen to fail in this first term, particularly after 4 chaotic years.
Where does this leave LTR? In my opinion, this stock still has significant potential upside given the rise in clean energy production and storage. LTR and its holders will have to deal with significant capital raisings (read dilution) and a long time to market for any significant increase in the share price. Is this the answer to Pongo's question about why the share price hasn't continued on its climb in the past 6 weeks or so. Maybe. But we have to consider that the broader market has tempered since Xmas too. Some of the frothiness has come out, at least if you look at the indices. If you look at the Aust indices they are a poor cousin to the US market (what's new there). Having made the last statement, the Biden stimulus may regenerate frothiness which may impact the Aust share market. However, I believe that if LTR is moving into production away from exploration then company fundamentals need to play a considerable role in driving an accretion in price.
As always, I have overstayed my welcome with words. Have a great night, DYOR
LTR Price at posting:
40.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
