New TA/Charting, page-14555

I don't think LTR will make any profit in the first 12 months of commissioning, Given the SP the market looks like it is agreeing with me.

At $1200 CIF (PLS December pricing) you can see why.

The company is looking to get a funding facility to give them $250m additional free funds. They are doing this for good reason.

Commissioning a new mine is an arduous process and rarely goes smoothly. They will likely need $150m for this. The balance as a back up to protect the balance sheet.

The $300m Ford facility will be replaced. interest on that will be around $22-24m. If they produce 400kt (that is generous) before the bullet payment thats around $55 per ton in interest, never mind any other draw down on the facility interest.


Shorts are currently 10%. Longs are 90%. Even WE 22/3/24 a big short increase week they were still only 37% of trades so Longs have control.

The trouble is no one is stepping up to the plate to buy.

Why is that??

If it is such a cracking bargain where are all the buyers??

Or are they waiting for the commissioning process to see results? Execution risk in the coming months is the biggest overhang on the SP. Nail that and she will likely fly even with tough pricing.