G'day holders & rarebird1971-Thanks for your effort. Couple of considerations.
RDO's-Rostered day's off -none allowed for ?
On a single shift roster their is no relief shift-hence the plant is shut down on RDO's.
When the second shift commences it will be a full second shift of cover,
meaning the incoming shift takes over while the plant is running reducing production downtime .
We had a datum point of 12 1/2 grams per tonne as very likely mill feed -pre shut down
with previous MGT-this is calculated back with a 9.3 g p/t recovered fro 5 x one tonne
tailings samples having been reported as actual .
We also have been informed by current MGT blasting & mining technics have been trialed
& new extraction methods developed that minimizes dilution, further that inline with what
was recommended buy consulting experts approx. two months after commissioning
commenced of the gravity plant have also been implemented- that crushes the ore a finer micron
resulting thus releasing the fine gold aiding & enhancing recovery -we are some what reassured by
sampling results utilising the same finer crush with the two smaller hammer mills 200 & 400 kg
per hour capabilities-hence we still require actual conformations as to exactly how the 25 tonne
per hour hammer mill if preforming .
We are aware their are many possibilities that can vary inputs used in calculations but as a
Crack -here we go.
Determine logical tonnage through put first.
Hm mill number three -25 tonne per hour capabilities -reduce by 20%
Using 20 tonne per hour x 5 productive hrs per day =100 tonne per day x 6 day's per week
(allows one RDO ) equates to 600 tonne through-put per week.
Allow only 28 day's per month as production cycle -so 4 weeks x 600 t per week
= 2,400 t per calendar month.-( with some built in RDO'S & down time in calculations )
2,400t x 12 months=28,800 t per annum -will further reduce by another 5 %
Now at 27,360 tonne per Annum as through-put with a 25 tonne per hour single 6 hr shift.
Pays to be conservative weather, mechanical failures, feed issues, operations errors & so on. So based on above we have through-put at approx. 27,360 tonne.
Grade used as calculated.
We had a datum of 12.5 grams per tonne & as stated can expect there has been large improvements
in gold recovery as the two identified issues being dilution & liberation of gold by implementing
mills that crush finer & liberate more gold leading to increased recovery.
Its been suggested that trial recoveries are 90% -I will use 85% as recovery.
So due to improvements reported with small mills grades thus far reported & under the assumption
dilution has been further controlled I will use 19 grams per tonne as mill feed grade at 85% recovery
is 16 grams per tonne average gold recovery.
So 25 tonne mill -through-put per annum -27,360 tonne x 16 grams per tonne =738,720 grams p/s
equates to 23,753 0Z per Annum.
OK moving on
The 25 tonne mill is being replaced by a 50 tonne per hour mill
That's twice the through put in capabilities - 27,360 tonne per Annum x 2=54,720 tonne p/a.
Then we have been advised a second shift is being implemented & it doubles again through-put
tonnage per Annum now approx. -109,440 tonnes per year
-( plant spec's at 100,000 tonnes at the moment -though clearly this will imo be upgraded ).
So at 109,440 tonnes per Annum x 16 grams per tonne recovered=1,751,039grams , Equates to 56,303 OZ per Annum-4,692 OZ per month.
This is inline with MGT projections of 60,000 OZ per Annum as targeted & is very close
to the specifications of the gravity plant as through-put tonnage.
I don't believe the tailing are imputed into gold targets with current MGT as its treated
as a bonus which it is .
Assuming-as stated the 25 tonne mill is delegated to tailings at the same through-put
that's been calculated on a single sift basis -is 27,360 tonne per Annum x 9.3 grams per tonne
equates to recovered gold of 254,448 grams-8,181 OZ of gold.
Now the reason I have only used a single shift in tailing calcs is
Tailing exact tonnage is unknown but it could be good for one year production & the 25 tonne
mill will imo be also being utilised for bulk sampling one tonne & higher per bulk sample will
give a good representation of average in-ground grades -eg the recent comment about small
swimming pool size bulk samples all have to be processed -hence second shift will still be utilised .
So knock your selves out that's my stab at Calc's & have given reasoning's ,
I also believe MGT will be intending to buy & install a second 50 tonne mill alongside the first
in the gravity plant & will be intending to upgrade the plants through-put capabilities in the
region of 200,000 tonnes per annum.
They MGT are also considering increased recovery by implementing a CIP -circuit.
A lot will be dependant on the availability of sustained mineralised ore supply with
controlled dilution & although Cascavel has reported many continuous narrow high
grade veins it would be ideal & take the pressure off Cascavel should a complementary
& in line with current exploration activities being only approx.8kms from the gold
processing facilities- that an alternate open pit supply be confirmed & seems
obvious why it is being is being pursued .
So as a rough rule of thumb based on above & what seems to be MGT intentions to add a
second shift & replace the 25 tonne mill with a 50 tonne mill what ever the 25 tonne
Mill has achieved as an average you should be able to times it by a factor of four as a guide.
Lots of variations plausible & possible that could influence calculations above both to the
upside & downside.
Some holders could calculate potential PE ratio's - I have based on above & only used
a PE of Six & would be happy should it eventuate, after all that's why we are here
invested is it not!
Plenty of exploration upside through discovery & ideally a JORC compliant resource
will be determined in future exploration activities-who to say potentials there.
Given what is transpiring within world markets & recent movements in the POG
a perfect storm for gold could well be on the horizon-this would abode very well indeed should
OGX -achieve intended milestones as investors seek out investment vehicles within the gold
space-if their is a seismic shift & markets continue to sell off- the gold space is very small in
comparison to world markets hence a very small portion of world market share of capital
looking for new & safe haven opportunities would drive the whole gold sector- in this scenario
I'm sure OGX will receive its share as will many others in the gold sector.
Time will tell .
gltah-imo
salt
