It's hard not to start jumping at shadows at the moment, I'm...

It's hard not to start jumping at shadows at the moment, I'm personally getting increasingly cautious and more than a little stressed while waiting for the topline results.

Have been considering Starpharma's phase III failure (thanks benelong I think it was), halving share price on failure (thanks kikkers), unknowns (thanks Viper) - an eg I'm considering is PFS success (based on the 5000 treatment cycle knowledge) but increased side affects or something completely left-of-field to blindside us. Another "black swan" if you will. Considered in combination, there's enough due caution warranted to almost coax me out of holding!

So, for others who may be feeling like myself, i.e. increasingly nervous, I just thought it might be worth a re-visit to this thread for those who may not have seen the video Alchemia produced at the end of August, or those who might want to remind themselves of why it may be worth holding at this stage through such a binary event - particularly in the current market where failure will be treated savagely.

http://www.alchemia.com.au/InvestorCentre/Videos.aspx


There's some confident language in that video. Why would they spend time and money on this video prior to the read-out of phase III results? Surely, they could have waited a couple of months to be certain of the mechanism?? Is it just increased confidence/expectations based on how this phase III trial has unfolded or perhaps something they know from previous internal trials, phase II trials, (other?) that leads them to believe in the efficacy that HA-I offers, and that it may even be killing cancer stem cells.

It's just enough to alleviate my fear and skepticism and keep me on board, and in my weaker moments, I even allow myself to remain hopeful of something truly exceptional coming out of this.