New Wuhan WH advisor., page-54

There's some merit in what you say regading influenza. The top end number is a little excessive, circa +64% but hey whats a few percentage points.



180k deaths / 9 months x 12 = 240k deaths a year. Thats x4 times the peak of Influenza at peak 61k and in lock down or variations of it.

What happens when no variation of lock down exists. Is it likely to drop, remain the same, or rise? Given its extreme infectious rate, probably the latter of three. One could only guess without doing the numbers, what the death rate might look like. Lets pick a conservative number and say x2 which gives us ~500k pa - is that acceptable?

Overlay the emerging data of vascular blood clotting in all major organs, etc., and what looks like a 'bad' flu suddenly takes the form of a potential super virus with no vaccine or therapy. Admittedly the data on this is still filtering through, so don't want to assume the impact in reality will be pronounced. However, we know its a secondary challenge so need to remain vigilant against its potential to cause greater harm then we already understand from ARDS induced death.

LeftYahoo wrote an excellent post that covers this specifically - if you haven't read it, it enlightening.

All the above aside, there's definitely a challenge ahead and it will take all the forces of human endeavour and ingenuity to solve. How best to balance both without making a mistake and killing off more than what some would call incidental.