Let’s not get ahead of ourselves once again. The price action is positive - share price and commodity price but there’s a ways to go here to turn things around.
The main catalysts are going to be nifty sale (or even wingellina) and then later down the track area 5 boosting production and lowering costs at Renison (hopefully with an increasing tin price). The former and putting to bed any chance of a capital raising is very important.
It’s not going to be a great quarterly. The FY forecast for Renison is now 7kt Sn at A$19k/t AISC.. and yet Q3 CY (Q1 FY) did 2.1kt Sn at A$16k/t AISC (at 1.5% Sn). Deduct Q1 from the FY guidance and you have estimates for the last 3 quarters of 1670kt @ A$20k/t Sn.. I figure they must be mining 1.2% Sn whilst awaiting area5 to come online.. This type of production/cost profile is going to generate sub A$5m a quarter for MLX share which is less than the nifty C&M bill.
MLX Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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