new year, new thread!!!, page-12

I agree Jacomo the reaction is bizarre. As far as I can tell this company will be earning around 7 cents a share this year if they keep going at this rate and the price still languishes at 17c. I ran the numbers through a spreadsheet and this is what I came up with for this fiscal year:

Revenue 222.6m

Cash Costs 130.8m
Capital/Other Costs 26.7m

Gross Profit 65.1m

Admin Costs 8m
Net Finance Costs 8m

NPBT 49.1m

No of Shares (including most options) 703m

EPS 6.99 cents a share

Free cashflow generated excluding exploration and development 75.8m

This is based on actual results for Q1 and Q2 and using Q2 run rate for Q3 and Q4.

Admin costs were 8m in 2009 and 7m in 2010 so I took the larger of the two figures.

Financing Costs is a rough estimate which I believe is erring on the side of caution given that we have 98m owed to Lehmans but we will probably average over 50m in the bank for the year assuming cash costs stay the same and the money for the coal projects starts to arrive in March.

Has anyone else run the numbers and come up with something much different?

The last time I invested in a gold miner with such a disparity between the (highly)likely earnings and the share price it went on to become a twenty bagger. Here's hoping the same for Norton although I can see this one being taken out by a larger midcap producer now that they seem to have turned things around.

Needless to say I bought another 50,000 today and will look to add more as the money becomes available.