Hi Ana - as a couple of posters pointed out to me a while back...

Hi Ana - as a couple of posters pointed out to me a while back Rhythm in its Dec 20 presentation said that it might submit for European approval based on its Study 6 results rather than wait for the study 7 results. No news yet that they will do that given the strong results returned by Study 6. However since the chairman invested his $1.5m in the company they have stayed on the front foot fairly much the whole time. Given this I suspect they'll have a solid crack at gaining early approval from the Europeans.

Which may not be such a bad thing as they seem to continue to struggle with Study 7. The reason they give for that is unmotivated test centres. As someone reminded me recently there are about 800,000 colonoscopies each year in Australia and we need only 1,000 of them to do a FIT and a ColoSTAT test so as to participate in Study 7. It can't be that hard, surely (?). Here's a conspiracy theory: those 800k procedures each year buy a mob of specialists a mob of fancy cars and houses. Given that the primary end point of Study 7 is a head to head contest between colonoscopies and ColoSTAT maybe some of the test centres are running dead for a reason. (yeah, I've already said it is a conspiracy theory).

To be honest with you I have not done any fundamental analysis of what I think RHY is worth. I have some broad figures : total worldwide market is $38b pa; either second biggest (overall) or biggest (early 30's cohort) cancer there is, early detection makes a huge difference; hundreds of millions in line for testing; really low take-up of FIT, there are some alternatives as effective as ColoSTAT and some alternatives as cheap as ColoSTAT but ColoSTAT is the only low cost, highly effective test under late stage development.

I think the easiest way our chairman will be able to monetise his holdings is by having the company taken over so in my view the company is worth what it sells for in the next year or so.