I haven’t been here long, but HC does seem like a great place to share information and views, the best forum on the web that I’ve found so far.
So on that sharing note, and it being a quiet sort of time at the moment, for what it’s worth, here is my current take on Bluglass.
Technology and IP:
BLG have, within their control, a new and proven, groundbreaking technology for LED and solar cell manufacture. The process is inherently scalable and is also applicable in many areas yet to be explored by BLG.
The company is extremely close to having the technology refined to the point of marketability. Partnerships are in place to facilitate that goal.
The technology’s IP is well secured, and the company has a strong focus on maintaining and strengthening that security. A newly appointed specialist patent attorney has been appointed to further strengthen the area.
Technology and IP risks:
The core technology may be gazumped by new and emerging technologies. Every company with a technology base faces the same risk.
Even with patents in place, it’s possible that others may be prepared to use the technology regardless, and be prepared to test the patents in court. BLG may lack the resources to mount a legal challenge.
BLG is attempting to advance technology in one of the most competitive sectors currently in the world, to be a gazumper in their own right. A challenging task by any measure, a task which may well be beyond them. Even now they are experiencing some difficulties in the final stages.
The company is relatively cash poor in relation to what they are trying to achieve, which makes it difficult for them to gear up the manning and the tooling as required, something that is constantly needed in this fast moving field and their sluggishness in this area may yet be their undoing.
Markets:
The markets for their future products are already huge, but in addition, those markets have almost unbelievable predicted CAGR’s for many years to come.
The CAGR’s are predicted not by BLG, but by reputable independent analysts.
Thus even small inroads into these markets have a potential to yield very large returns.
Alliances have already been formed in key areas and more are in the pipeline.
The addition of the Blusolar business also greatly expands the potential markets.
Market risks:
Even if BLG is successful in commercializing the technology, it will be hard to muscle in on existing relationships and to disrupt the comfortable status quo in supply and production chains. Market resistance may be high, so the market penetration may be much less and/or slower than anticipated.
Consequently, the reward side of the risk/reward ratio is wide open to speculation. Future revenues are subject to a range of opinions.
Personnel:
It’s the people that make or break the company, we all know that, and BLG have excellent world class personnel in their management and engineering teams, with experience specific to the company’s needs.
Recent appointments have served to highlight that fact.
It seems that they now have the talent and the key skills to mount the final assault and break through the remaining barriers.
Personnel risks:
With BLG’s limited financial resources it may be hard to keep the remuneration of key experienced staff at levels such that the company can be confident of retaining their services for the long term They may also lack the funds to attract suitable new talent as required.
Some existing staff may be headhunted and join the ranks of competitors.
Their small workforce leaves them vulnerable to suffer significantly from the loss of any key team member for whatever reason.
Financial
The recent CR via institutional and sophisticated investors, and the recent government grant have ensured that the company is currently cashed up for the next year at least.
BLG is also in the “green” sector which enhances the company’s ability to raise funds as needed in the future, either from the public or private sector.
I see very little chance of a belly up scenario.
Those who have had more access to the technology details have been impressed enough to commit large sums to the company’s future. In particular our government has been convinced enough to hand out over $10 million in grants so far.
Financial risks:
Cash burn continues, no sales or income of any sort as yet, so it is still possible that BLG may run out of cash before their goals are achieved if they are unable to raise more funds.
Information to shareholders on progress in the company is extremely limited. This allows negative thoughts to take hold and resulting in a loss of shareholder confidence.
Low confidence results in a low share price and the two combined can make it difficult to raise amounts of substance, should they be needed.
General:
Typically, a start up high tech company will not show any returns for some 10 to 15 years after the technology breakthrough, but for BLG, time to market has been substantially reduced by the prior development work undertaken by Macquarie University and Gallium Enterprises. This makes BLG particularly attractive as an investment in this sector as many years have been short circuited out.
BLG has been incorporated for only 3 years and yet is now on the cusp of commercialization.
General risks:
BLG’s very low market capitalization (around $40M) makes them very vulnerable to a predatory takeover. The worst case scenario here however is a profit for investors but a lot more unrealized profits left on the table.
I thought BLG was a good investment when I initially looked at it just over 2 years ago, and now each time I review the company, the investment looks as good or even better, although the risks are still there.
I think, that over time the fundamentals have strengthened rather than weakened.
The consequence being, that I have accumulated more shares over time and I’m now fully loaded.
I’m also very comfortable with my position, even though currently I am showing a paper loss with BLG
I invested in BLG to capitalize on what I believe they can become when they reach their goals, and being a patient sort of investor, I’m prepared to wait for that to happen.
Day traders and short term investors will come and go here, vent their spleen on the forum and move on. Good luck to them as BLG is not for them.
There is a natural tendency however to look at the share price on a daily basis and become disheartened by the lack of movement or by the long and pronounced price dips.
The share price in times like these is driven more by shareholder nervousness rather than any change in the fundamentals.
So, the paper loss!
To me, that’s like showing a loss on an investment in setting up a new orchard, before the trees have matured and produced any fruit.
There’s a whole world of analogies left in that one, if you want to think about it long enough.
That’s it folks, the take home points being:
“A potential to yield very large returns”
“The risks are still there”
Be nice to get some feedback and other opinions as well.
Regards all.
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Last
1.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $25.76M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.0¢ | 1.1¢ | 1.0¢ | $8.061K | 803.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 82504 | 1.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.1¢ | 5480271 | 13 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 82504 | 0.010 |
27 | 8369746 | 0.009 |
28 | 7539816 | 0.008 |
8 | 1606999 | 0.007 |
4 | 1250166 | 0.006 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.011 | 5480271 | 13 |
0.012 | 6213384 | 6 |
0.013 | 2529558 | 3 |
0.014 | 270000 | 2 |
0.015 | 98000 | 1 |
Last trade - 15.27pm 11/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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