ARL 5.21% 50.5¢ ardea resources limited

I am a newby and novice - please be kind!! I am very impressed...

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    I am a newby and novice - please be kind!!

    I am very impressed by the research undertaken by many on this site. These are some thoughts I have been accumulating and want to share.

    Ardea is essentially Heron 2014. The spinoff of Ardea has barely impacted Heron’s price, and any impact it has made is in HRR holders selling to get a bigger piece of ARL.

    Woodlawn was a recent acquisition to Heron (Aug 2014) - prior to Woodlawn, HRR market cap was $74 mill @ 18c.

    Ardea is essentially Heron without Woodlawn. Ardea has to reach a market cap of $74 million just to get back to where it was 3 years ago. Since then, the resources held at KNP are in demand, so this increases these values considerably.

    At HRR AGM last year (I was present), almost no mention was made of cobalt. It was not on the radar. If you look at the AGM presentation last year you will see that KNP was presented last in the suite of resources. This is maybe why so many in-specie shares came on the market. The main attraction of Ardea was the 236,000 ounces of gold at Lewis Pond - worth $378 million, or conservatively, $65 million after extraction costs. The gold at Lewis pond alone would make Ardea worth 95c a share. The bulk of Ardea’s fund raising was intended to go straight to work on Lewis Pond as it was literally the gold mine in the portfolio. (I don't believe there were any plans to drill at KNP at that time). Lewis Pond has now been relegated to second priority (I suspect) as the result of the interest in cobalt at KNP. The first indication of the interest in cobalt was in a release on the 23rd of December, well after the prospectus and IPO was launched.

    Since IPO, interest in nickel laterite has improved, due to the resurgence of cobalt, and nickel's role in the new energy revolution.

    KNP, which holds possibly the largest nickel laterite resource in the world is way undervalued, even without the cobalt. Chinese and Indian middle-classes will demand lots of nickel as stainless steel becomes commonplace in houses and industry.

    KNP also has one of the largest deposits of Chrysoprase (Australian jade) in the world, with some veins of very high quality. Good quality chrysoprase can fetch $1000 a kilogram. Ardea estimates of $8-20 per kilo is only for the very low grade product. Chrysoprase is highly valued in China as a portent for having sons (no misogyny implied). For the religiously inclined, it is also one of the precious stones used as the foundation for the heavenly Jerusalem (the Kingdom of God).

    Lewis Pond, Mt Zephyr and Bardoc were considered priority projects over KNP. KNP was the giant runt (intended oxymoron) of the Ardea litter. So those who got into Ardea early (moi) did so by pure luck, as the jewel in the crown is now cobalt.

    Day traders don’t get it. Ardea has several very high value projects, and these projects are likely to be spun-off sooner rather than later, particularly with the success of the Ardea spinoff. The market does not reward diversity or even potential, but looks for focused operations that can be easily assessed and valued. Heron suffered from having too large and broad a portfolio. Boards need to focus, and Heron was just too big. The new Heron (just Woodlawn project) is Heron's way of saying we were wrong and unfocused. Ardea is now too big, but the Ardea board is unlikely to make the same mistakes as the old Heron. Serious investors will do well if they are patient.

    Incidentally, I love watching the value go up, but I would be happier to have cheap options. So I am hoping that we have not cracked 80c in early May, so that the options will be limited to $1 each.

    That's all I've got. Sorry for stating some well known stuff.
 
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