UNV universal coal plc

Hi guys,After reviewing UNV's excellent fundamentals before...

  1. 307 Posts.
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    Hi guys,
    After reviewing UNV's excellent fundamentals before close yesterday, I quickly became a UNV's newest stockholder.

    However, I only realised that a takeover could be imminent after buying shares.

    I'm a little confused about some things - would someone be kind enough to get me up to speed.

    I'll summarise my understanding of the situation (please correct me if I'm wrong)

    ISSUE 1:
    - The UNV board are very enthusiastic about a bid of 35c (a little too enthusiastic?).
    - If the bidder thought 35c was a bargain - and they had sufficient money - surely they would have already make a formal takeover bid.
    - Surely, this means the consortium is not serious about a 35c bid, either because:
    i) don't consider it good value @ 35c,

    and/or
    ii) they don't have the money to make a bid of 35c

    ISSUE 2:
    - The stock is currently trading at 34.5c, just a fraction below the bid offer from the consortium (which, as of yet, hasn't materialised)
    - Let's hypothetically say a formal bid of 35c is received right now - assuming the bid is accepted by the board - the stock will surely then go into an extended trading halt while the takeover proceeds.
    ==> Where is the benefit in having our capital locked-up through a trading halt?
    ==> Coal has been known to be a highly contentious issue and the political environment could change substantially during the period of a trading halt, especially with an Australian federal and NSW state election looming overhead.
    ==> If the current share price were lower than the anticipated bid price, thediscount would partially compensate shareholders for the 'risk they take on by holding shares through a takeover.

    QUESTIONS:

    • Should we be expecting a bid lower than 35c from the consortium?
    • What is the value in continuing to hold UNV at nearly the same price as the price of the expected bid, given there is additional risk in holding shares through a takeover. What is the UPSIDE to holding shares at the same price as the price of an expected takeover bid?
    • The prospective bidder is a private consortium. My understanding is that our shares will not become amalgamated into a different publicly traded entity on the ASX. Is this correct? Are we all just expecting a cash payout @ 35c per share, and that's the end of the story?

    Thanks for your help,

    Jay
 
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