Hi everyone.
Here's an outlook for the future of RGI over the next 2 years. Hoping I haven't made too many mistakes here or missed anything too important. If you think I have made a mistake, please correct it below however I'd love to keep this thread as factual as possible, so just make sure you're 100% correct in any corrections you make! Of course feel free to ask questions here.
In my opinion this company could give some of the best returns on the ASX over the next 2 years. There's a disclaimer at the bottom so don't forget to check that out. As always do your own research as I have done mine.
I think this post here could serve as an excellent starting point for anyone looking for a quick 'get up to speed' session on RGI so please share it with anyone interested in RotoGro.
Cheers
CY 2020 and 2021 for RGIFreshero:Going back to the July CEO presentation, the facility will be for 720 7' (Yes that's 7 foot. Not 8 foot) machines. I don't believe the GFS fertigation systems will be sold with these.
720 units with the automated harvesting system should be worth well over $9m in revenue. Freshero plan to have 2 facilities in Australia as well as a few more overseas. Lets say $6m goes in here in 2020 with the remained in 2021.
Miracle Valley:Has been progressing well. They've paid a $1m deposit so far of $2.3m and have received 24 units (1 room) which are producing now and exceeding expectations.
There's 8 more rooms to fit out under this $2.3m order.
I expect we'll see this job finished in 2020, with the remaining 20 rooms to start in 2021 (estimating $5-7m in revenue)
Frozen Penguin, now known as Oakum:
First 2 rooms are fit out and they've paid $600k to date (You may notice by now that each room of 24 units is worth $250-300k in revenue and is 1000sq ft)
Once their license to cultivate comes through, they need to do 2 harvests and then we're off to finish the remaining 38,000sq ft which should be to the tune of $12m in revenue.
It's possible that this will be done in 2020 but I have my doubts. Let's say 1/3 gets done, so I will leave it as just $4m in total. A bit of a guess here.
Siksika:
We haven't heard too much on this one though we know their facility is planned to be 25,000sq ft. However they only want 90-150 RotoGro units to start with. Their facility could hold 600. Possible $1m+ in revenue from these guys in 2020.
The Malaysian MOU (RGS):
This one's hard to figure out. There's no numbers given to us just yet though we should hear something soon. ---break---Lets say a possible $1m in 2020.
RavenQuest:
Hoooooooooooo boy. Hard to say what will come of this really. Both sides seem to think they own IP but only RotoGro have patents. I know where my money is.
Stuffed if I know how much money we'll get off RQB if we win. Let's put $2m and a 5% royalty on every gram they grow in the "perhaps" section
Finally, CanniFarms:
There will be 2 harvests from flatbed rooms here in the first half of 2020. Revenue won't be huge but this is a requirement to get our license to sell.
The big $$ comes from fitting out the first phase which is estimated to complete around September. This is 25,000sq ft so we can allow $7.5m in revenue for this.
RotoGro do have to pay for 51% of this. So lets cut that down a bit to $3m in revenue (Which is pretty much all gross profit).
We should also have a few harvests before the end of 2020 from the RotoGro units in CanniFarms. I'm estimating around 3000kg of dried cannabis produced from CanniFarms for the year.
Hard to say what the price per gram will be at that point. Revenue from this could be around $15m ($7.5m for RGIs 51%), but I don't know if we'll see all that money in the bank by years end.
Lets say $2m in cannabis sales for 2020.
So in total we have:
$6m from Freshero
$1.3m from Miracle Valley
$4m from Oakum
$5m from CanniFarms
= $16.3m in revenue
"Perhaps" revenue from Siksika and RGS around $2m.
& $2m + $1.4m on-going royalties (@5% of 7000kg of cannabis per annum out of their facility)
= $5.4m in "perhaps" revenue
Not bad, considering revenue in 2019 has been like $2m or so, but can be greatly improved in the near term because the real $$ is coming out of CanniFarms which only had a couple of months to provide.
Profit here would be something around $4-5m EBITA I would think
Could see a market cap up around $100m at this point or something around $0.60 per share. A large P/E I know, but again, CanniFarms is the earner and only had a couple months to work for us.
Quarterly reports from this point on should show around $6-8m in revenue with cash inflows of $2-3m.
Half way through 2021 a market cap of $150m would be considered cheap I think.
Let's have a look at 2021 now.
CanniFarms:
25,000sq ft in production on January 1 and up to 50,000 by years end. Let's take 35,000 as an average which will produce for us 16,000kg worth anywhere from $50-100m in revenue.
Lets say $60m, and take our 51% of that which gives us $30m.
Freshero:
Well on their way now. We get the remaining $3m for the 600 units this year as well as a royalty on everything they sell (A 5% royalty has been mentioned a number of times but is not confirmed). I have no idea what the royalty will be worth at this point. Maybe a few $100k to $1m at 100% profit for 2021.
We should see many more orders from them after the first successful facility in Australia. Let's say another 720 unit order to the tune of $9m as well as the remaining $3m from the previous year.
This isn't counting the other countries mentioned which I believe are intended to roll out ASAP. Could be well over $30m in orders here for those facilities over 2021.
Our 100% profit royalties will really start paying off at this point. Possibly multiple millions per year.
Hard to say what revenue could be for 2021 from them. I will say $10m.
Miracle Valley:
Finish their other 20 rooms. $5m in revenue.
Oakum:
Finish their other 38 rooms. $8m in revenue.
RGS in Malaysia and Siksika:
No idea on order numbers here. Could be a few hundred units each at this point. Lets say 300 units each for $6m. These may or may not be Joint Ventures or profit shares. Hard to say at this point. I won't allow any revenue for that.
Gibio: Maybe they got their crap together at this point. Maybe we'll just buy them out and farm the 36,000 heads of lettuce per day ourselves.
Assumed revenue in 2021 = $59m (Up to $76m if cannabis prices stay high)
Disclaimer:
The Freshero deal is nothing more than an LOI at this point. No formal JV has been signed and no deposit has been paid. It's possible that nothing comes of Freshero, though I personally think it is going ahead.
The future price of cannabis is hard to predict. We could see a serious oversupply much like what happened in the Lithium sector. Profits may be seriously down, however with our price to grow cheaper than anyone else, i think we will stay afloat even with a price crash. The current price is around $7 a gram though I wouldn't besurprised to see it as low as $3 in a few years. This is where the RotoGro units will really shine being the lowest cost producer that I can find.
I'm also assuming we don't have any issue manufacturing all these machines over the next few years. In fact I haven't allowed for any real hiccups at all or the extremely low chance (in my opinion only) that RavenQuest win the patent claim and counter-sue us. I'd say all these figures I've given, while at some points have been fair or conservative, are a best case scenario.
