@Pedaco'Intrinsic value' is pretty marginal...for the reasons...

@Pedaco

'Intrinsic value' is pretty marginal...for the reasons given by Older and Spiney: 2P reserves at Umiat are minimal (in the big picture) and that asset is stranded for now, which logic would suggest would materially discount the Oil Search benchmark of US$3.10 /bbl. But even if you did not discount it, that is about A$400m, or about 2.8c per share (on 14b SOI). I suspect, that would be a high side estimate. Additionally, if being generous, there may be cents in the dollar option value for prospective resources. At 10 cents in a dollar (ie 10% option value) that would be US$0.31 per bbl of prospective resource. At 1% option value, that is US$0.031 per bbl of prospective resource. I suspect market is closer to the 1%. And all that option value is based on an undiscounted Oil Search type valuation.

There may be speculative value over and above the intrinsic value....I suspect that is all tied up in any additional option value attributed to the prospective resources (ie a higher cents in the dollar factor) and/or people speculating that the actual outcome in the event of a discovery (with all obvious caveats associated with that word) would be closer to the 'mean' or 'high' end, as opposed to the 'best guess'. But that is for each investor to evaluate and substantiate/justify in their own mind.

And then there are the trading opportunities created by people in the market rushing in and out and mostly predictable stages and cycles in the annual Alaskan exploration calendar. I have taken to be more focused on this, unless and until I find the need to do something differently.

All IMO and GLTA.

PS. The value that someone will pay for any proven reserves is not the price of oil, but rather it is based on the NPV per bbl of oil taking into account the huge sunk costs for development, and opex for extraction and transit to sales point (which is not insignificant in Alaska), and taxes and royalties. IIRC, Oil Search acquisition price was at a time of $60'ish oil price....not materially far from today's oil price.

PPS. My sentiment is not implicit advice. It is purely a result of having traded to a material free-carry position. A valid case can be made to buy, sell or hold depending on your perspectives of the trading opportunities....and your average cost! IMO.