As noted by @TeddyKGB there's the other 50% off-take and a mining licence is expected in 2023.
The resolution of the Congo situation and trading restarting could be a value driver for A11. There will be lots of shareholders that didn't realize quite the risk they were taking who have been unexpectedly locked into their investment. As a shareholder group they like projects with excellent geology/economics and are ok with African lithium exposure risks generally, but not the risks shown from their current project. If even 5-10% of that money were to recycle into LLL/A11 that's a lot of buying into these alternative projects.
While there isn't a lot of spare cash sloshing around in either PLL or A11, if they do decide that they are heading for 3Mt or more, you could get an exploration drill program announced in the near future. This would allow results before mid-year. Even 10,000 or 20,000m into more distant exploration targets could confirm multiple lithium bearing peg's and provide increased confidence to plan for increased throughput. This higher capacity could be either as a larger start-up plant or through having a 2nd stage that increases output and is funded from operational cash flow.
While this project can be DMS only, it may benefit from a back-end flotation plant to achieve recoveries from fines and also potentially higher recoveries from P2 material. A lot would depend on working assumptions around Spod prices and how much appropriate flotation plant would cost and in the case of P2, what recovery could be achieved via flotation. At price assumptions around $1,328/t a back-end flotation plant may add to the economics of the project as a 2nd (or 3rd) stage project funded from operational cash flow and therefore avoiding the risk the first operational cash flow does not occur until flotation is working properly. If this improves the economics there might be scoping study announcements or operational announcements indicating this is A11's thinking (although it complicates the DSO only message).
Looking at fines
Currently the Scoping study has 300kt of roughly 1.2-1.5% fines at $85/t. There's a capital cost / recovery rate / Spod rate matrix where a back-end flotation project would provide a good financial contribution on the capital required. It would also provide a wider economic contribution of less transportation costs of low-value product and creating a product that would have wider marketability in a wider range of Spod prices (the DSO market disappears at lower Spod prices). If the recovery rate was 60% and the fines were 1.2% then 8.3t of fines would be needed to create 1t of SC6. As fines at $85/t, 8.3t of fines would generate $708 of revenue. As spod, the price would be market spod prices which in the future could be any number of different prices. The 2Mt model had 300kt of fines which could become at least 36kt of Spod. At $1,328/t for spod it would generate $620/t extra margin ($22.3m on 300kt). Of course if you could sell this spod for $3,500/t then the extra $2,800/t would be $100m/yr extra revenue (although if you assume higher spod prices, the DSO price may also be higher). If fines flotation makes economic sense, one of the announcements would be fines (and probably P2) metallurgical test work on fines product that would hopefully show good recovery rates and refine the assumptions for this supplementary business case.
Ironically there's a win-win situation on this. If a fines flotation business case makes sense then there's extra profit. If a fines flotation business case doesn't make sense using 1.2-1.5% material, its going to make it difficult for any other small/medium lithium project mining 1.2-1.5% product that needing flotation to be economic. Any other lithium project that was primarily flotation would have mining and crushing costs that A11 wouldn't in a fines BC. If less projects are economic, less go ahead and that lowers lithium supply meaning lithium prices for A11's DMS sourced lithium would be higher
. I'm guessing a fines flotation BC would be economic.
DSO/Modular
There was a interview where Neil Herbert talks to Vox. At the 5.25min mark Neil mentions looking at early revenue opportunities mentioning DSO or a modular basis. The modular basis might mean 1Mt processing gets on-stream more quickly followed by upgrades to 2Mt, 3Mt etc. There may be updates around this, particularly if they have the potential to generate revenue before the end of 2024.
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