While generally I've found Rodney Hooper's comments in his Rock...

While generally I've found Rodney Hooper's comments in his Rock stock video comments good, in the case of the Atlantic's model there were bits he missed re DSO and Felspar credits upside value.

Within Atlantic's original scoping study there was 4.12Mt of Feldspar @ $50/t for $206m of LoM revenue and 3.74Mt of Fines generated at $85m for $318m of LoM revenue. On average $42m of revenue was included so it wasn't a surprise to see $40m/yr of byproduct revenue in Rodney's analysis. When the scoping study was done there wasn't much visibility of fines pricing because it only really made sense as Spod prices started to head north of $1,000/t. Its unclear where Atlantic sourced their estimate from but it may have been the top end of Core's US$75-$85/t fines scoping study from July2021 (which was done when Spod was circa $850/t).

More clarity now exists around fines pricing (thank you SMM and a picture from their website is below). This value may be realised by concentrating via flotation to Spod. It may be realised by DSO shipping but it should be in the model one way or another and currently its substantially missing.

Because DSO Spod/Feldspar are related to volume of throughput they will vary as volume changes from 2.0Mt to other estimates like 2.7Mt (DMS only). Looking at a 2.7Mt model, Feldspar volume would grow from 330kt to 446kt and at $50/t would deliver $22m/yr. Lithium fines would increase from 300kt to 405kt. At Spod prices like the $3,500/t average assumed across 2025-2028, fines are likely around $300-$350/t. As per SMM pricing, Spodumene grading 1.2-1.5% is currently trading for US$400/t, approximately 1/10th of Spod SC6 prices of US$4,120/t or it could be 9% [385/4120]. If fines were 9% of SC6 and SC6 was $3,500 then they would get $315/t or $128m/yr. The combined revenues from Feldspar and DSO Lithium could be around $150m/yr if Spod prices are US$3,500/t or $110m/yr more than the estimate used. If lithium prices are where Rodney forecast then there's many more hundred's of millions that can be added to the financial modelling for DSO revenues (unless Atlantic decide to invest in flotation to convert to Spod before shipping).