As the CEO mentioned in the conference call, there are too many variables (number of competitors, number of first-to-files, litigation costs etc.) to accurately predict profits within specific timeframes.
As an investor, I don't believe knowledge of the specific generics in the pipeline are a prerequisite (or even particularly helpful) to making an informed investment decision. Rather, I find factors such as these more useful:
* The pipeline's and individual generic's addressable market value
* Number of new products being added to the pipeline and R&D expenditure
* Notification of a first-to-file
* Number of existing competitors for a product
* Cash burn
All of this information is either available or will be made available at a date in which it is no longer deemed sensitive in regards to its competitors.
My understanding is that generics have a relatively short life span, measured in years rather than decades. With the major revenue inflows coming within the first 6-12 months. As such, a robust R&D programme focussed on replenishing the pipeline is imperative for ensuring long term revenue streams. A steady pace of product launches and a deeper ANDA pipeline is something I will be looking for with Acrux.
Are they're similar pharmaceutical companies that specialise in generics to compare too?
I would be interested to hear from other posters on similar companies too. Teligent is one company that appears to be a couple of years ahead of Acrux, in terms of development. They currently have 26 ANDA's on file with an addressable market of US$1.8 billion. So in comparison, it appears Acrux are targeting generics with greater individual market value.
Teligent also "believe that commitments by the FDA under the Generic Drug User Fee Act (GDUFA) will start to dramatically reshape the generic drug landscape."
Looking at their pipeline chart, it's clear to see a trend of shorter timeframes for ANDA submission to approval.
http://www.teligent.com/assets/Pipeline-chart-Aug-1-2018.pdf
