This thing isn’t close to drawing me in, the only thing that...

This thing isn’t close to drawing me in, the only thing that keep me interested is the vaccine division. It’s nice to know they have a current revenue stream and that there’s the potential they’ll become cash flow positive however I don’t see this happening to at least Q2 2017 FY (that’s 31/12/2016 for people that do their finances based on a calendar year lol).

The figures I used to derive at this are based on recent averages. Including $1 spent in COGS equates to $1.75 in revenue, current expenses of $26 mil/pa (based on half-year 2015) climbing at 5% a quarter, an average growth rate in the No. of operations using Cardiocel of 30% per quarter and on current usage of 300 operations per quarter. I believe the rates used are reasonable if not generous. Based on this I see revenue of 2.6 mil for the March 2015 quarter and see a breakeven point when 2000 operations per quarter or 8000 per year with a revenue of 70 million/pa is achieved.

To me this isn’t very encouraging the problem lies in the fact that the profit margin in patches simply isn’t great enough at a mark-up of 75%. However if the 30% average growth rate looks like being realised and shows consistency over the coming quarters then I might bite but until then I’ll sit back and watch until what I see is the inevitable capital raising this FY.