This thing isn’t close to drawing me in, the only thing that keep me interested is the vaccine division. It’s nice to know they have a current revenue stream and that there’s the potential they’ll become cash flow positive however I don’t see this happening to at least Q2 2017 FY (that’s 31/12/2016 for people that do their finances based on a calendar year lol).
The figures I used to derive at this are based on recent averages. Including $1 spent in COGS equates to $1.75 in revenue, current expenses of $26 mil/pa (based on half-year 2015) climbing at 5% a quarter, an average growth rate in the No. of operations using Cardiocel of 30% per quarter and on current usage of 300 operations per quarter. I believe the rates used are reasonable if not generous. Based on this I see revenue of 2.6 mil for the March 2015 quarter and see a breakeven point when 2000 operations per quarter or 8000 per year with a revenue of 70 million/pa is achieved.
To me this isn’t very encouraging the problem lies in the fact that the profit margin in patches simply isn’t great enough at a mark-up of 75%. However if the 30% average growth rate looks like being realised and shows consistency over the coming quarters then I might bite but until then I’ll sit back and watch until what I see is the inevitable capital raising this FY.
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