Baldy can you show me where we have even got close to having excess renewable energy? The two BIG bits at the bottom are brown and black coal. I don't see either of them at zero, not even close, at this favorable time of the year for renewables. Yes generation is curtailed but never anywhere is it zero. In fact, the AVERAGE renewables are 36% of total, which means we have an average of 64% still to go!!!!!! before we close all thermal generation and before will build any large scale storage.
You mentioned a pumped hydro is 70% efficient which means it is a NET consumer of energy, it doesn't produce anything. What was wrong with my assertion? Off shore wind 50% higher capacity factor than on shore, fine, on shore is around 24% (36% is exaggerated, I worked on the Victorian wind atlas project) so 50% greater results in capacity factor of 36%. So we have 36% multiplied by 70% for the pumped hydro, invert the result and we need 4 times the nameplate capacity to replace a thermal power station with off shore wind and storage. Solar also has a capacity factor of 25% in good conditions. So 8GW just to replace Loyyang A. Note that the average for brown and back coal is around 12 MW so 48 GW extra capacity at least is required, that's above what renewable capacity we have now,
Dont look at negative NEM prices as a method of determining if renewables are in excess, thats a sign of a broken market mechanism, nothing more,
So charging up the pumped storage will more than likely be via coal, that's a great GHD saving initiative. Do you think it good to have the government touting its environmental credentials whilst putting in systems that increase GHG's???? And the motivation is TO SAVE MONEY!!!! Get the generation first then worry about long term storage. The BESS installed at present are for grid stability, not long term storage.
I am in favor of the transitioning to renewables and would entertain nuclear but we have to be realistic about the challenge and not be blinded by spin.
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