I do have a degree - you are right - it isn't in engineering (its Commerce (accounting))... don't try and use that to discredit what I am saying.
I know I haven't posted about the impact of EV's and the electrification of industry - simply because it isn't what I have been discussing with you.
The increase on demand side for NEM has yet to be seen - dare I say it will be also offset somewhat by current movements of large energy users (smelters, miners, Corporates greenwashing etc) to go 100% renewables by their own tender process or via PPAs... RIO Tinto being a recent high profile example - they are not taking capacity out of new supply... they will be building their own new capacity to meet their own demand.
The issue of increased demand will be met by increased construction of capacity - triggered by high market prices or reverse tender proposals from high energy users (like RIO, Sun Metals, BHP, Woolworths, Telstra etc)... reality is - this is where we are right now. We have had more multinationals enter the Australian market for generation than I have ever seen - with multi billion dollar budgets (Blackrock being a recent example, plus Iberdola, Shell, CIP, BP... the list goes on and on). AEMO having to step in to suspend the market just goes to show how broken and at mercy the market currently is to operators who supply on demand (gas, diesel, oil - clearly NEM 2.0 will require some form of circuit breaker to compensate these on demand generators... but with a generation price being set by AEMO and not the operator). Those recent market pricing events attract new investment like a moth to a flame... the impending closure of coal plants only further incentivizes new investment... something that AGL under the previous board had elected not to do. Obviously government policy and attitude also have a part to play - during the coalition years
In regards to offshore wind turbine installation times - it partly depends on the technology used...
There is also specific assets used in assembly of these units offshore... have to say that the offshore location would also make delivery of materials such as 222m long turbine blades much easier via boat than trying to have a truck navigate up and down a hilly/mountain range involving corners.
Either way - current build times vary between 6-10 years.... good point to note is that orders of scale develop their own industries... plenty of lip service being done by government... plus the likes of Twiggy and MCB about bringing additional manufacture into Australia.
As to Australia's current installed capacity of wind on the NEM - it is predominantly installed in SA & VIC - where there is a great amount of resource from the roaring forties plus heavy government focus on the part of SA (who has multiple times this year supplied 100%+ of their demand for multi day periods) ... once QLD and NSW get further into their development of REZ's you will find a better geographical footprint will help improve the consistency of wind supply - as it has an inverse relationship typically to wind in SA, TAS & VIC...
GNX today released their quarterly which included the wind resource available at their QLD Kidston location - 200Mw initially planned... its an excellent resource and actually has an inverse supply property to solar (weakest wind there is during daylight hours)
Expected FiD by end of 2023... operational by 2026
In regards to Kidston PH - it is contracted to be operated by EA - how they operate it will be up to them... initial modelling before their deal was inked predominantly priced the potential of KPH according to arbitrage 1st and foremost... QLD has some impressive pricing shoulders for the morning and evening peaks (which are obviously outside the ramp up / down capability of their current coal generators) - again I will borrow current example from GNX
lower morning peak is from 6:00am to 9:00am - 3 hours... Evening peak is 16:00 to 21:00 - 5 hours... with a 7 hour interval in between from a total storage of 8 hours... it makes the most economic sense to utilise the PH storage to address these time periods of elevated pricing first... and there is no way that I can see that they will not be able to achieve it.
FMG's FFI is also building large wind farms in QLD (Clark Creek 450Mw - eventually 1.2Gw total), plus QLD Government (500Mw), Plus Iberdola (1Gw+), Plus Forest Wind (1.2Gw)... there is over 5Gw already in the pipeline easily for QLD...
Looking further down the path as there are fewer "baseload" (I prefer not rapidly flexible) generators in the mix - NEM 2.0 will need mechanisms in place which stop on demand (or dispatchable) generators (gas, diesel, oil, PH, BESS) from performing arbitrage or peak pricing supply and instead supply their energy during pre-determined hours to ensure grid supply meets demand... obviously the loss of profit from selling into peaks will have to be offset by some pricing mechanism until additional capacity is built....
Your opinion on whether QLD goes ahead with their PH sites is purely that - I entirely disagree with you. As to its usage... same could be said for Snowy Hydro... it has currently 7 days storage... have you ever looked to how often it is actually used? I am the first to say that historical uses of PH will change (or be forced by AEMO) as our energy mix changes... ideal world they should be used whenever renewables are producing least... use as it stands they are performing arbitrage - when they profit most - exception being QLD Wivenhoe, which was until recently operating at the lowest price points of the day.
To close on a positive for AGL - we have a fair amount of BESS + a PH in development
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- News: AGL Australia's AGL expects to exit coal generation by 2035
AGL
agl energy limited.
Add to My Watchlist
0.00%
!
$9.78

I do have a degree - you are right - it isn't in engineering...
Featured News
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
|
|||||
Last
$9.78 |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.579B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$9.78 | $9.83 | $9.73 | $12.81M | 1.310M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 255 | $9.78 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$9.81 | 11314 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1550 | 9.770 |
4 | 18100 | 9.750 |
1 | 12291 | 9.740 |
1 | 308 | 9.730 |
5 | 11379 | 9.720 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
9.840 | 2000 | 1 |
9.850 | 5081 | 3 |
9.880 | 10000 | 2 |
9.890 | 5000 | 1 |
9.900 | 3000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
AGL (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
P.HOTC
HotCopper
Frazer Bourchier, Director, President and CEO
Frazer Bourchier
Director, President and CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online