Be nice if I knew
So on the plus side for accepting:
- They are offering an extra 5% for acceptance. 3.6 times $2.40= $8.64. APE is $9.00 today. (Could be $12 or $6 in September, who knows).
- you will get access to any APE dividend between now and being issued with new scrip if the deal goes ahead (they just paid one so another is not likely until September)
- You can forget about the board who got you into having to accept a low ball bid at the bottom of the cycle
On the other hand, what the hurry?
- APE only have 50% and the offer doesn't close until 16 September 2019. PPT have 9.2% they haven't sold yet (maybe soon)
- We're yet to get ACCC approval which is due sometime in the next 80 days or so.
- It's unlikely but possible someone else may bid (PE or similar)
Personally I am going to wait until they have more of the shares (say 70%) and then I'll decide whether to sell on market or wait until September.
I am not positive but I think if you accept now and APE hit a rock, you can't sell because you are not a holder.
Again, it's unlikely but what's in it for me to accept the risk to their share price and previous decisions for 4 months?
Personally if someone offered me $2.50 today, I'd take it rather than tie myself up until September and also take the risk that the ACCC will require a big cost in terms of requiring them to sell assets to meet approval.
So there's still a bit up in the air and for now I'll sit and think about it. Been plenty of sure things that changed over night
