@suzuki42
All you need to read from my linked post above if you want to understand why people are angry at Wayne Patterson and want his head on a spike.
If you can provide any logical reason for what he said and what eventuated, I will eat my shoe.
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Now, time for a little bit of mathematics, and PLEASE bear with me as I set up the scenario...
The quarter started on 1st April and ended on 30th June. There were exactly 91 days in this period.
30 days in April, 31 days in May, 30 days in June -
30+31+30 = 91
(just in case).
The AGM was held on Thursday 24th May 2018.
If we take the 30 days of April, and the 24 days in May, we end up with a total of 54 days having passes in the quarter up until the time of the AGM.
But let's be generous and say Wayne only had weekly sales figures, and lets back date it to the previous Friday 18th May.
But we know this isn't the case as he states / implies they have daily metrics to the "hospital, unit, product and rep level" (above)
That means 54 days into the quarter at time of AGM which was on a Thursday, MINUS 6 days (Friday 18th) = 48 days into the quarter.
Cool, that is our baseline.
Now, $4.4m, let's divide that by 3 to keep things simple - $4,400,000 / 3 = $1,320,000 per month (or $48,350/d) to hit guidance.
April was slow, let's say they did $1m
(which is actually 23% off the target of $1.3M for the month)
.
That means May and June are now at $3.4m / 2 = $1.7m (or $56,666/d) to hit guidance.
Let's say we were 18 days into May, which was looked "fantastic", which means we were at least on target to hit our $1.7m for that month.
One can reasonably deduct that we should have already done 18 * $56,666 =
$1,019,988 from Tuesday 1st until Friday 18th May.
OR we should have done $1m (23% miss on the month) + $1,019,988 (what was required to hit the guidance) = $2,019,988 from Sunday 1st April until the Friday 18th May before the AGM.
NOW - the company only did $2.7m in adapt sales for the WHOLE QUARTER
This means
in the 43 days remaining, we had to make
$4.4m - $2,019,988 =
$2,380,012
($55,350/d)
If we should have been at roughly $2m for the quarter by the time of the AGM, how can we only make $700k when we should have been making close to $2.4m
How can a professional "working and forecasting with billions of dollars" get it so wrong?
(20min delay)