Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

AIO

0.00%

$9.13 asciano limited

Brookfield are at 20.58% as of 19/01/16. Unless they report to...

First 15 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
maan

313 Posts.

24/01/16

11:45

Post #: 16858567
Share

Originally posted by zog ↑

An issue is that the BF offer is conditional on getting 50.1% of the AIO shares. Reading between the lines BF have not yet achieved this (or they would not be extending the bidding period) This must mean that less than half of the outstanding 60% of SH (after deducting the 20% held by BF and the 20% held by Qube including their partners) have accepted the BF bid to date. The offer is dependent upon BF getting 50.1% and consequently until this threshold is achieved and the ACCC give the all clear, any SH committed to the BF deal will be stuffed (i.e they are committed and will have to accept whatever the market is prepared to offer once BF have release committed shares. I feel it's a lot better to take the risk on the ACCC clearing at least one (hopefully both) of the offers. BF have placed a 50.1% threshold on buying committed shares; the evidence suggests that this threshold has not yet been achieved. If only the Qube bid is cleared by the ACCC (and they go unconditional) then BF will need to release committed shares (which they will do in their own time). Where the SP would be when shares committed to BF are released is anyone's guess. Assuming the ACCC clears both deals and the Qube bid goes unconditional we could see the SP going higher (at least above the $9.27 level + 39c franking credit) and also the sweetener of all cash.

To me "keeping your powder dry" is less risk with the added prospect of a better deal. The only real downside is that both bidders pull out (or both are rejected by the ACCC)

Expand

Brookfield are at 20.58% as of 19/01/16. Unless they report to many more decimal places my few shares won't shift that figure.

AIO Price at posting: $8.42 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

STX

Strike Energy secures $153 million for Perth Basin gas projects

RDN

If you thought lithium was dead, think again. The Pilbara will be central to the next upswing

With financials holding the fort, materials must step up with some heavy lifting to stimulate stocks

AML

Cultural heritage agreement puts Walford Creek exploration back on the map

SBW

Shekel Brainweigh CEO Nir Leshem weighs in on AI adoption ahead of FY25