News: AMC Amcor Says Shareholders Vote In Favour Of Scheme To Create Amcor PLC, page-12

Unless they are ready to roll out a set of products that are very rapidly degradable in every category, there is potential for a catastrophic fall in the business, if there is a combined perfect storm of political pressure from leftists, environmental groups, greenies, climate changers and so on. We are already seeing this happen in the electricity and coal industries in the ANZ region. The amount of 'green' energy (solar, wind etc) projects investment is already making big inroads into total power generated and is rapidly gaining markets too. In all probability, the economics of green power is wrong by a big margin, but it is too late for rational analysis as the greenie movement has got mainstreamed. We will probably thrive despite the exorbitant costs because as a wealthy region we can absorb the higher bills. The inflation in power costs over the past 10-15yrs is a scandal if people bothered to take it seriously.

The factor that might trigger a similar campaign that could gather force in plastics is the waste problem, with Asian countries that were destinations for rich world garbage waking up to the racket and now refusing to accept it. It might turn out that Australia and similar countries find cost-effective solutions to recycle/dispose plastic waste but chances are that it will end up running a big bill. Who will foot it is the big question. chances are high that it will in some form come back to bite the plastic suppliers (who will pass it on to customers for another round robin process). This bomb is quietly ticking but who knows when it will get louder?

The science is there to make pretty much all packaging from 'renewable/natural sources', but not sure whether the technology is fully developed, let alone production-ready. It will take a decade or two to convert or change over existing plants. Hell, even the resin producers will take years to gear up to supply green resins. Just like green power, green plastics will add a sizeable wallop to the entire cost chain. In spirit, the advanced countries should be willing (or resist enough) to be corralled into bearing higher costs by the greenies ( as they are doing with green power).

This, in my mind is the risk that may not be imminent or urgent but unavoidable in the long run for a company like Amcor.