a review of armstrongs model

I was going to review every date since 1985 and its results but decided that was too time wasting. The model is available and you can do it yourself if interested.

The conclusion is that on some occasions it is spot on to the day and at others 10 days either way and it depends on the market.

For instance 1994.25 was supposed to be a major low but it wasn't for our market but was THE low point in the US. At that time I was watching only our market and was dissapointed.

Likewise 1998.55 was the exact high in the US.

The 1991 low and 2002 high turning points in the US were out by about 10 days either way.

With a major high due in 1989.95 it missed by a couple of weeks in the US and less for the all time high in Japan.

In some cases the momentum indicators peaked on the exact days but price turns came a little later.

So with a major top due around 25-26/02/07, I would be allowing a couple of weeks either side.

Since the '87 crash happenned right on a peak day, I would rather be early than late.

I would also watch the US markets around that date more than here.

Can it be uneventful? Not likely, it will be in some area, but it may be currency or other market that doesn't affect us so much.