When it starts rolling in, we could get almost weekly...

When it starts rolling in, we could get almost weekly announcements for maybe a month or two, but who knows. I am expecting something descent following the silence. Plenty of work is due to be completed by now and I'm expecting follow up contracts. I am also expecting a descent presentation to follow the half yearly results. My guess is that some of the contracts may have been completed but are going through follow up destructive testing etc. IMO they are currently in some serious talks with relevant parties in the US and sussing their options to secure finance for a facility in the US to access more sensitive contracts. I'm expecting to hear something about this either by the end of this quarter or end of FY24.

In the recent report they mentioned that they were confident that they can secure 'multiple' contracts in FY24, and they haven't disappointed yet.

Things to expect (speculation):

- 3-4 more alloy testing contracts in the other alloys of the 6 mentioned as important for the US Navy.
- Follow up part contracts for US Navy subs.
- Follow up on BAE prototyping contract.
- Additional machine sales into US defense industry.
- AS9100D certification and Boeing contract.
- Chevron or Exxon Contract.
- Additional machine sales to Austal. Could be for the mobile expansion and work on constellation class frigates, or in Western Australia to support the work on 8 billion AUD worth of frigates that have not yet been officially contracted to Austal. Even 1% of that budget going to AL3 would be 80mil.

My hope is that AML continues to lean into engineering. IMO the prototyping work with BAE and Austal 3D printing contract is underrated because she is demonstrating a capability to engineer prototype and deliver solutions to manufacturing problems. It's one thing to provide a machine with a certain capability, or scan a part from inventory and print it but, its far more interesting if they are actively developing novel engineering solutions for BAE or the contracts for the US Navy, let alone developing a custom 3D printing solution for Austal.

The Austal contract really needs to be revisited, surely the market was cross eyed when it was announced. Take a look at this plastic boat frame being 3D printed and then imagine a 35-meter cubed metal structure being fabricated for a larger vessel. The first 3D-printed boat, 'built' by the world's largest 3D printer (youtube.com). I have no idea what the tonnage would work out for parts of that size but previously AL3 has printed an 8-ton pressure vessel for Exxon with existing machines. I had a look at a weigh calculator that calculates weight of compounds and materials per volume and although it assumes the part would be completely solid, 35 meters cubed solid steel part would weigh around 275 ton depending on which steel alloy was used. A similar part printed with titanium would weigh roughly 158 ton and an aluminum part would weigh roughly 94 ton. Since taking a closer look at this contract and the Advanced Technologies facility in Charlottesville, Virginia that Austal is setting up I have started accumulating Austal shares as well. I have seen both BAE and Austal adopt a modular approach to ship building and it seems to me that AML could be demonstrating the capability to print an entire ship module with this contract. Perhaps this is too ambitious, but I am definitely keen to see what this printer can produce.

Again, I think everyone including myself is confused with what exactly AMLs focus is and where most of her revenue will come from and how it can scale. When she announced the focus on machine sales, I think people saw this as a loss because she would lose the potential revenue of contract manufacturing. If this was the case, even if she was providing custom built printing solutions and there was serious demand for her machines, I doubt she could sell more than 10 machines a year and the recurring revenue on licensing and servicing would probably be nothing compared to the contract manufacturing she could do. Despite that change of direction though she continues to deliver roughly half of her revenue through contract manufacturing, and I doubt it will ever stop. Hopefully it was just a drive to increase the number of AML machines in operation.

Personally, I think this whole issue should just be forgotten entirely. What's important is that more AML machines are operating this year than last year and the yearly AML printed volume is increasing. That and she has now established relationships with some of the largest manufacturers in the world in an industry with the largest budgets in the world. As long as each contract builds on the last and the revenue graph keeps pointing up this is a sure win. What we need is this half yearly to look close to profitable for the next, a US facility officially announced and another 10 million worth of contracts in the books by the end of financial year.

IMO current price is looking the way it is because few people have the stomach to hold through the half yearly results. TBH it will probably be a red day even if it is looking good despite being unprofitable. That said there is material news to be expected around the same time.

Let's just hope for some solid news worth a re-rate because if this thing is going to have any chance at a solid scale it's going to need another raise ideally in the 20s or 30s like DRO managed.