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News: ANZ Australian banks well capitalised to withstand virus disruption, page-131

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rvajna

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18/03/20

23:29

Post #: 43570828
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Originally posted by discursive: ↑

this is seriously difficult to calculate the fallout from this.
the effect on GDP could be apocalyptic.
There is only 3 scenarios left.
1) Try to slowly contain the spread to the point which the health system can cope. Aim for a vaccination to be delivered within 12 months. Governments to prop up devastated sectors. This would require a minimum of $200b, however many companies will fold, jobs & houses lost.
2) Let nature run its course, manage the fallout. Minimal financial impact to businesses and households. Huge death tolls, exhaust medical system.
3) Lock down & suspend all economic activity. Everyone in dependent jobs works for free, we live off food stamps for 6-12 months. Everyone comes out of this equally, we all move forward together, no one profits from other misfortunes.
Its a tricky time looking at past history to forecast the markets. But it is obvious in 18 months it’ll be full steam ahead, we just need to figure out how we can get there without huge fall outs.
I like option 3. I wanna support those that are going to go through some really tough times.
surely it’s feasible, if all costs of living were abolished, I’d happily work for free providing I just got enough basics to live off/get by. Surely within our communities we’d have enough facilities to support each other until we come out the other side.
If we do this together we will thrive. We continue down the road of panic buying and hoarding, this will quickly evolve into crime rates sky rocketing.
Anyway 4900 will fall tomorrow based off my analysis, there’s only average support at 4600, real support doesn’t come till around 3800!
We are looking at one of the biggest retraces in history, this could undo 14years of growth. The most absolute low is 3450. This certainly looks to have another 30% in it unless the government enacts of the 3 scenarios above and throws down $5b stimulus every month until it’s over.

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If the most absolute low is 3450 then it's not too bad as it is up from there. The danger is if that is breached and we go down 60-90% from the high.

ANZ Price at posting: $16.62 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $31.07		Change -0.080(0.26%)		Mkt cap ! $92.53B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$30.90	$31.10	$30.71	$100.2M	3.238M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	20	$31.05

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$31.07	5403	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	20	31.050
1	32	31.030
1	97	30.930
2	355	30.910
1	400	30.900

Price($)	Vol.	No.
31.110	1000	1
31.120	1000	1
31.130	435	1
31.140	30	1
31.150	544	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 01/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ANZ (ASX) Chart

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