The cycle is turning, I don't think this drop is the real deal at the moment, but the $37 has probably established a hindsight peak where lower highs will be retraced for the coming months, before some counter-cycle fundamentals start becoming factors then we'll see if we can get into the $20s. Factors such as:
- Lack of cash yield has driven up housing and stock market in the search for returns for 6 years.
- Macros like Interest Rates, Global / China / U.S / Australia Growth, Housing Prices, Negative Gearing all have downside risk.
- Basel with higher capital requirements, possible cap raising dilution and ROE decline.
- $NZD, term deposit tax are small negative factors too.
I'm targetting $27s if bank earnings hold up with flat to low earnings growth, or $25 if there's a fundamental decline in one of the macros like Housing Price declines or China.
My time frame for this to play out will be in the next 24 months.
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Last
$27.96 |
Change
0.310(1.12%) |
Mkt cap ! $83.89B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$27.97 | $28.20 | $27.89 | $94.96M | 3.391M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 397 | $27.94 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$27.96 | 826 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 2400 | 27.900 |
2 | 5044 | 27.880 |
2 | 580 | 27.850 |
1 | 750 | 27.810 |
3 | 703 | 27.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
27.980 | 214 | 1 |
28.000 | 1000 | 1 |
28.020 | 8027 | 2 |
28.050 | 1000 | 1 |
28.080 | 1000 | 1 |
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