The cycle is turning, I don't think this drop is the real deal at the moment, but the $37 has probably established a hindsight peak where lower highs will be retraced for the coming months, before some counter-cycle fundamentals start becoming factors then we'll see if we can get into the $20s. Factors such as:
- Lack of cash yield has driven up housing and stock market in the search for returns for 6 years.
- Macros like Interest Rates, Global / China / U.S / Australia Growth, Housing Prices, Negative Gearing all have downside risk.
- Basel with higher capital requirements, possible cap raising dilution and ROE decline.
- $NZD, term deposit tax are small negative factors too.
I'm targetting $27s if bank earnings hold up with flat to low earnings growth, or $25 if there's a fundamental decline in one of the macros like Housing Price declines or China.
My time frame for this to play out will be in the next 24 months.
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The cycle is turning, I don't think this drop is the real deal...
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$31.15 |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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1 | 65 | 31.040 |
1 | 900 | 31.020 |
4 | 2031 | 31.010 |
11 | 3552 | 31.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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31.160 | 6000 | 1 |
31.200 | 4500 | 3 |
31.230 | 2000 | 1 |
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