News: APA APA Group Says Estimated Final Distribution Of 29.5 AU Cents Per Security, page-17

As with any share it depends very much when you bought doesn't it?
APA has appreciated at twice the rate of the ASX over the long term.

Rookie logic.


APA is one of the closest things to a fixed income security one will find.

And the period of its outperformance coincided with bond yields compressing by 80%, i.e. from after the GFC in 2008 (when quantitative easing and modern monetary theory was invoked around the world) until the end of the Covid thing in 2021.

But since then, i.e., over the past 3 years, APA has tracked the underperformance of bonds, confirming its bond proxy status.

You're making a mistake if you think it's a good-quality business to be held for the long-term.

It is a capital-intensive, low ROCE, zero growth business whose seemingly attractive dividend yield is manufactured, courtesy of some increasingly aggressive financial engineering while it embarks on a business transformation whose outcomes are indeterminate.

Make no mistake, the only reason the stock price will rise is if market sentiment, of interest rates having peaked, takes root.

Otherwise, it will simply remain the value trap it has been since interest rates started to normalise.


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