these the kind of articles hurting us everyday..comparing...

these the kind of articles hurting us everyday..comparing inventories to 2014 when there was far more chinese domestic supply to deal with

The soaring iron ore prices won't last, according to the Australian government.
Australia's Department of Industry, Innovation and Science forecasts iron ore prices to
average $51.60 a ton this year and only $46.70 in 2018, a small rise from the
Department's $44.10 prediction for 2016.
On Friday, iron ore tumbled 3.4% to close at $76.30, a new six-week low.
Australian government's stance is not on the minority side. Morgan Stanley, for
instance, sees close to a 25% drop in ore prices this year. In a January 2 note,
long-time ore bear Gordon Johnson of Axiom Capital Research wrote:
If History is Any Precedent, Record Stocks at Chinese Ports Carry an Ominous Sign for
Iron Ore Prices. After jumping by the biggest 1-wk increase since Oct. '15, +2.7% w/w,
iron ore inventories at Chinese ports reached a new record high of 114.0Mmt on 12/30;
using implied consumption as a denominator (i.e., the latest data on daily pig iron
output x 1.6), days of inventory for port stocks topped 38.6, the most in 2-yrs.While
inventory restocking at China's ports likely helped support prices, w/ an intense destock
likely in the offing, we see downside risk to prices as imminent. How much? Well, using
the last big peak-to-trough cycle as a guide, 7/4/14-6/26/15, port stocks & avg. wkly
spot prices fell 30.2% & 35.5%, respectively. Further, since the 7/4/14 peak,
stocks/prices shared a 65% correl. Assuming stocks fall just half as much as in the last
down cycle, using a simple regression, we est., ceteris paribus, prices could quickly
fall back to $61/mt.
This morning, Fortescue Metals (FMG.Australia) fell 3.1%, BHP Billiton (BHP) dropped
0.4%, Rio Tinto (RIO) was down 1.4%. On Friday, Brazil's Vale (VALE) tumbled 3.7%.