News: Australia forecasts dramatic drop in iron ore prices through 2018, page-4

Guys
The shorts at Reuters are at it. This is from the Departments Commodity Quarterly latest publication. In addition the Chief Economist tweeting that the Department had revised UP their iron ore estimates.
Market summary
Australia’s iron ore export values are forecast to increase by 30 per cent
in 201617, to reach $62 billion. This represents an upward revision
from the previous forecast of $54 billion, due to the recent unexpected
strength in the iron ore price. The iron ore price (FOB Australia) is
forecast to average US$58 a tonne in 2016 17, supported by a
resurgence in China’s steel production and speculative trading. The iron
ore price is forecast to decline to average US$49 a tonne in 2017 18, as
demand cools and supply grows. As a result, export values are forecast
to decline by 8.4 per cent in 2017 18, to $57 billion.
Prices
Iron ore spot price forecast to decline from two year highs to reflect
weaker fundamentals
The rally in the iron ore spot price (FOB Australia) has continued since
the last Resources and Energy Quarterly  averaging US$66 a tonne in
November and exceeding US$75 a tonne in mid December. This gain
took the price to a 26 month high. The rally reflects a combination of
fundamental drivers and speculative trading. However, with the likely
moderation of these factors over the outlook period, the iron ore price is
still forecast to decline, to average US$53 in 2017 and US$49 in 2018.
The iron ore price has been supported by the resurgence of China’s
steel sector, where improved demand conditions have boosted margins
and production. A sharp increase in metallurgical coal prices has also
supported the demand for imports of high quality iron ore, which requires
the use of less metallurgical coal in the steel making process. The
growing premium for high quality iron ore is reflected in the widening gap
between the 58 per cent and 62 per cent iron ore price indices.