The Australian dollar took a breather on Monday after a dire set of retail sales numbers suggested the economy was still struggling despite three cuts in interest rates, and that yet more stimulus might be necessary.
The Aussie AUD=D3 eased to $0.6914 and off an early top of $0.6925, leaving resistance around $0.6930 intact. It now has chart support around $0.6884.
It dropped 0.3% on its New Zealand neighbour AUDNZD= , which in turn helped the kiwi nudge up to $0.6449 NZD=D3 .
The setback came when government data showed retail sales rose a miserly 0.2% in September, leaving inflation-adjusted sales for the whole third quarter down 0.1%.
That capped a terrible 12-month period in which sales suffered their worst performance since the recession of the early 1990s. It also boded ill for consumption and gross domestic product growth in the quarter.
"The September retail report disappointed in every respect," said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. "The monthly profile continues to show little or no response to policy measures – interest rate cuts in June-July and tax relief from July."
"Overall the report suggests consumer spending remained very weak through the third quarter, pointing to downside risks to the wider consumption measures in the national accounts and to near term forecasts for GDP growth."
That will be sober news for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday and has been touting a gentle turning point for the economy.
Investors
0#YIB: still assume there is almost no chance of an easing this week given they cut just last month and rates are already super low at 0.75%.Futures imply a 24% chance of an easing in December, rising to 54% by March.
Still, the reaction in bonds was restrained by a general sell-off in safe havens amid signs the United States and China were getting closer to agreeing on a "Phase 1" trade deal this month.
The speculation also seemed to help put a floor under the Aussie, given Australia has much to lose from a protracted Sino-U.S. trade war.
Australian government bond futures followed other major debt markets lower, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 off 3 ticks at 99.190. The 10-year contract YTCc1 fell 5.5 ticks to 98.8450.
