I have questions about long term aluminium demand...Aviation is...

I have questions about long term aluminium demand...

Aviation is transitioning to composites which are becoming cheaper and better - Boeing uses composite fuselages and the Russians are using an entirely composite wing on their MC-21. Together, that's around 50% of aluminium in an aircraft (correct me if I'm mistaken).

Furthermore, as composite technology trickles down into less demanding applications (ground vehicles), lightweighting will also be achieved through composites, rather than aluminium.

Electrification and the associated need to build new transmission lines is a positive aspect, but I'm not sure how significant it would be for overall demand.

What will drive long term demand?