It is pretty simple. AWC has multiple refineries one of which is...

It is pretty simple. AWC has multiple refineries one of which is Kwinana. This refinery operated at a significant high run costs than the other refineries. As a result, this business itself was costing over $150m in annual losses to the bottom line. What Alcoa is trying to do here is shut-down a non profitable arm of the business and start to book in immediate cost savings which can then be used for other purposes. The SP is rising due to a number of reasons:

1. Medium term, Alcoa believes that they can compensate the volumes being produced out of Kwinana through expansion in production from other refineries otherwise they wouldn't be shutting down production facility when they know longer term there is demand for more volume (not less).
2. Short term, Market believes that by reducing a substantial supply (1% of global demand) from the alumina market, it will put upwards pressure on available alumina and therefore the net-profit for the business might be compensated or even increase through margin expansion.
3. Long term, it puts a focus on WA government to seriously think about how they support these strategic metal miners to sustain and grow by providing access to high quality ores otherwise risk more shutdown and job losses in the economy.

You should also factor that this is company that was generating multiple hundred millions in profits only 3 years ago - The aluminium prices are believed to be in the trough of the cycle as as prices increase due to factors above and also global demand increasing, you are looking at a company that could be valued at multiples of current price. This is a $3 stock sold down due to three factors:

1. Commodity price which is now stabilising and might start to trend up
2. Regulatory risk from not getting approvals - which is turning out to be a lower risk than previously anticipated
3. Inflationary pressures on production - cost saving approaches above and global inflation turning downwards making this a tailwind in 2024 and beyond

I don't think you should be surprised by 17% increase, I think quite frankly next 18 months could be a multiples game and not teens.