The probability of the scheme succeeding is much higher (near 100%)
Gina and SQM will want the scheme to succeed - that way they get 100% of the company.
If the scheme fails and defaults to the bid, there is a good chance they won't get to 90% and therefore compulsory acquisition to get to 100%. Then the share price falls significantly, before increasing to $10 plus in a couple of years (extremely hypothetical).
I fully expect the scheme to succeed and payment to hit my bank account on 18 April.
For me: bitter, sweet. Don very well, but wanted to stay longer for the ride.
AZS Price at posting:
$3.61 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held