BHP FY24 solid; still looking to grow Copper. Wemaintain a Neutral on BHP as we expect weaker iron ore prices over 12mths+ tobalance against stronger copper prices, and shareholder returns to moderatewith higher capex. FY24 is overall in line with CF slightly ahead; BHP stillperforms to plan operationally & financially in its key divisions.Production & capex guidance is unchanged, while FY25 & 'medium-term'unit cost guidance is slightly higher than expected. We trim FY25/26 EPS by ~5%& our target by 2% to A$42/s. Iron ore remains key (65% EBITDA);fundamentals are softer than expected in 2024 with the market in surplus & pricestrending towards cost support (90th percentile US$88/t); in our opinion, BHP'svaluation is not yet compelling with the stock trading at ~5% FCF & ~4%divi yield at spot (iron ore $101/t) (interactive).While organic growth is 'Plan A', we still see a risk of BHP pursuingopportunistic M&A with organic Cu growth modest until 2030s.
Source: UBS.
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Last
$37.53 |
Change
1.410(3.90%) |
Mkt cap ! $190.5B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $36.87 | $37.70 | $36.80 | $530.4M | 14.18M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 6726 | $37.53 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $37.55 | 450 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
| BHP (ASX) Chart |