A $500 punt, your money may turn into dust. But if it gets back to its previous peak that is pretty close to a hundred bagger and would probably grow from there. If its gets diluted 25 times then its a 4 bagger if it gets to a $16 value, may take a decade though. You have to apply game theory: what is the highest gain for oaktree: not making a deal then if things are going well it could buy the shares for pennies make 100%+ for several years, if it goes wrong they can call in the loan and make 50 mill once. It depends on what other opportunities Oak-tree has and also their reputation for future deals. There have been news of several real estate sales so I guess they are improving cash EBITDA (if average return is good). Also any misleading information by Oaktree could make them liable for unconscionable conduct leading to interest payments being nullified. Also there may have been new funds: batteries, Sydney StuAccom etc.
BLA Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
