If anybody is inclined to poke about and develop some plausible...

If anybody is inclined to poke about and develop some plausible outyears' forecasts for BYL, a touch point should be the H1Y16 announcement. My previous post had grown too verbose to elaborate more on the basis of a forecast, so I did not mention H1Y16 material, other than to confirm the $2.1m equipment impairment. NPAT for H1 was reported at $4.2 million, and EPS at 3.3c. Without the $2.1m impairment, underlying NPAT was said to be $5.7m. The board elected to pay the usual interim dividend of 1.2c.

That would suggest that the full year should have been $4.2m + $5.7m = $9.9m, and FY about $5.7m x 2 = 11.4m, which translates to 9c EPS. At a PER of 5, that would give a high-end SP of 45c. I have not considered a low-end for the range but if we pick an SP of 20c, then we could say, "somewhere between 20c and 45c". The high-end estimate is based on a no-impact-on-revenue setting, with expenses remaing at the old relativity. We should expect expenses to decline (although borrowing expense may increase), but I have kept that up my sleeve to buffer any decline in revenue. As this is the rosy picture, you should expect it to be high. If you do not like the 20c low-end SP, pick the current 15c to end up with an SP somewhere between 15c and 45c, and lo and behold, the mid-point is 30c, which suggests that a punt at SPs below 20c is viable.

Then of course, a capital raising at a discount, or something equally stupid, could happen, and make things worse for we poor mushrooms whose shares would be diluted. Issuing of 350,000 options at 13c recently is hardly something that I would consider to be in shareholders' best interest, when very ordinary management should effect a doubling of that 13c.