I had forgotten about the 16 August increase 2020 Guidance, which was an out-of-pattern one, and anyhow superseded by the “refined” Guidance of January 2020. Below is the full history of Guidances from July 2019 and January 2020. The last mentioned being since withdrawn following Covid-19 scare.
What the NPAT, EPS and DPS is going to be for FY20 is a matter of conjecture. The NPAT should be a bit down, but EPS even more so, because there will be 12 million more shares, and who knows if Management is going to change the dividend-payout ratio, or not. The significant SP determinant should be the July guidance for FY21, and that requires a higher level of conjecture to seconf guess if one is in the mood to work out what Management may tell us in July FY20.
Although I have selected $20 as a sufficient-for-me valuation, I actually think it should be higher If for example, the FY21 EPS is thought would be 100c, and an PER of 15 reasonable, then one ends up with $15.00. If the EPS flattens, and is thought to stay at about 150c, then with a per of 15, one gets $22.5, and so on. As an aside, a quick way the calculate any number ending in 5 by itself, is to multiply the leading digt by a number larger than it by 1, and slap 25 behind it. So 15 x 15 = 225, and 95 x 95 is 9025. It works for any number from 5 to a zillion and 5.
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