Shorting PYC? Yeah, it hurts!All short selling must be registered with the ASX, therefore they are on public record. On and off, brokers have been shorting PYC in the past. As recent as 26-Mar-2024 that 2,306,572 shares were shorted until 12-Apr-2024 and here is the proof:
I bet this broker did not read those great articles on Hotcopper and got his/her fingers burnt badly. The SP went from 0.08 to 0.10, a whooping +25% in these 2.5 weeks! Suffering a massive loss of $46,133 loss in shorting PYC must be very painful!
Is the SP being manipulated?Price manipulation is illegal. However we have seen PYC's SP being heavily influenced by unusual trading patterns like 1 share, or a constant barrage of small number of shares at 5 - 10 minute regular intervals. Sometime they made the SP to go up but mostly knocking the SP down. Selling 1 share at the close to push SP down by 5% is not uncommon. The aim is to destroy the people's confidence so they cut loss and sell.
There are a number of possible reasons for doing this. One one hand, there are brokers/investors chasing short term profit of 5-20% in rinse-and-repeat cycles, it's legal and there is nothing we can do. On the other hand, they might have clients who had missed the run up and wanting to get in but at a lower price. Therefore all kinds of tricks are being used to drive the SP down, in a concerted and continual effort of doing so.
Great opportunities to accumulate!To the true believers and longer term holders, it is not unrealistic to expect SP hitting 0.39 in 12 months when the ADPKD kidney drug shows efficacy. If you have been following my postings, my estimate is $43 in 4-5 years. The calculation is simple:
- RP-11 drug: US$1b p.a.
- ADOA drug: US$2b p.a.
- ADPKD kidney drug: US10b p.a.
- By 2028/2029, a total of US$13b p.a. = A$20b p.a. = $4.29/share @ P/E=1
- With drug# 4,5,6, etc progressing through the pipeline, P/E would be at least 10X if not more, SP = $43 @ P/E=10
- With 4.666 billion shares outstanding, the market cap would be A$200b.
- For comparison, CBA's market cap is $201.02b and P/E=20.77 https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/cba
(Note: Market penetration may not be 100% in the short term, and cost has not been factored in; however income from sales outside of US would be more than enough to compensate for these shortfalls.)
If you check the world's population, US + Canada is only 7.5%. Europe has more people, Asia's spending power could be lower but the huge population would make up for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_continents_and_continental_subregions_by_population
The WORLD is our market, so look at the big picture and the blue sky PYC is heading into, these artificial "sell downs" are annoying but in fact great opportunities for us to accumulate. DYOR.
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