Out of curiosity, what state are you in?
Reason I ask is that Checking both WOW and COL pricing for the past 12 months indicates that it Nesquik Choc 500g peaked at $6.50 with the occasional promotional price of $5.50, and then came back down to $5.35 on the 12th of January 2024. Insider information - there is currently no agreements to increase this price in the next 3 months.
This price coincidently matches the pricing on Amazon as well, which means there is either a price-fixing cartel, or the price is being set by the supplier - a concept the general public keep refusing to accept.
In regards to cocao prices - there is a delay in impact, just like with oil. When prices increase or decrease it takes time for the wholesale pricing to flow through.
Raw commodity price of cocao plant -> wholesales that refine it into a powder -> whole salers sell it to manufacturers to re-sell or for use in their products -> retailers -> consumers. Using easter for example, all the chocolate eggs was locked in and purchased months ago before the increase as part of supplier agreements.
Similarly there is currently an global olive oil supply shortage. Australia isn't impacted (yet) because we have local storage of stock available, however once we have consumed all our local stock, we too will suffer from an olive oil shortage with either shelves going empty or prices going up, or both. We consume around ~50m/lt, while producing only ~20m/lt.
This is where understanding the impacts of global supply chain, logistics, maritime shipping, global events, etc. is useful. You can then connect the dots with little effort and life becomes simple.
People complain about Coles and Woolworths having a "duopoly" - however this is true for most industries in Australia. We're too small of a population spread over too large of an area with 3 main hubs being Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Non-foods has more competition because of less regulations, no spoilage, etc. People can grey import from anywhere in the world. However when it comes to food, the manufacturers / suppliers have equal power. Take canned beetroot. 1 manufacturer / supplier shutdown their Brisbane factory, relocated to the NZ, got hit by 1 natural disaster and that lead to all our supermarket shelves going empty. If people think that Woolworths or Coles can "bully" these suppliers into specific pricing agreements at the risk of impacting their range and availability. Imagine if only Coles or only Woolworths have canned betroot available, it wouldn't be a good look... now expand that same thing to the other 10,000 products.
The one guy having a cry in the senate inquiry a few days ago (and subsequently deleted his linkedin profile) worked in the laundry detergent industry... not a food, and was competing with global suppliers therefore much tougher competition. Woolworths and Coles are not going to waste shelf space on a product that is more expensive then what people can buy elsewhere.
(20min delay)
