I am here guys - just avoiding the addiction as much as...

I am here guys - just avoiding the addiction as much as possible.

An exciting step forward today but also evidence that it take a long time in biotech.

Given the size of the company I think we should only expect hundreds of thousands as the upfront and I expect it will show up next month in the quarterly. Then payments for the Mix&Go product - again probably hundreds of thousands over a year. There does seem to be a hint that there are 'ready to go' products going to use M&G and their revenue size seems to be in the tens of millions - as for a royalty rate - who knows - the SCE report said high double digits for the previous deals and most believe 3-5% for big guys so call it 10% as a guess - so $1m per $10m product revenue. The payments are quarterly (most probably in arrears) so product on shelves in Q2 and first royalty revenue in Q3 may get us 250k in Q3, 250k in Q4 and as more products come on stream in 2012H2 there will be quarterly revenue in 2013. If these add up to anything like 30-40m worth of product then we are cash flow positive off 1 licencing deal.

Of course there are plenty more deals to come so the sum of upfronts and product sales and early royalties could see us cash flow positive by the end of this year.

A very nice changing of hands today with traders in and out early and holding higher levels. Hopefully with some press tomorrow and a little prodding of the interested instos we can kiss goodbye the single digits forever.

See you at the AGM - I hope it costs me a fortune.