Morgan Stanley, a different interpretation so take your...

Morgan Stanley, a different interpretation so take your pick...

While FY23 NPATA of US$2.6bn was broadly in line with guidance, we see mixed results in between the lines. Across CSL Behring: (i) margins disappointed at 49.2% vs MSe 51.5% and Cons 49.5% indicating continual cost pressure; (ii) plasma collections +31% pcp and -14% reduction in cost per litre from Jun-22 to Jun-23 (-17% from the peak, vs Grifols 20% decline from the peak at the 2Q23 result); & (iii) Ig sales were a miss (vs -5% MSe; -4% Cons). Across other segments: (i) Vifor positively surprised at the margin at 70.9% (vs MSe 67.4%; Cons 66.4%) and (ii) Seqirus revenue and gross profit came in line.FY24 NPATA guidance is reiterated at US$2.88-3.01bn at constant currency (vs MSe and Cons US$3.0bn). Group revenue growth guided to +9-11% at CC. Company expects FY24 FX impact expected to be immaterial if current rates remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Capex guided to be US$800mn (-30% on FY23) vs MSe and Cons at US$1.2bn. On Behring’s gross margin recovery, no change in tone. CSL expects margins to return to pre-COVID levels within 3-5 years (FY19 GM of 58%).