CUV

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$14.30 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

News: CUV UPDATE 1-U.S. FDA approves Clinuvel Pharma's rare genetic disorder treatment, page-107

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Silverchair

840 Posts.

1148

09/04/20

10:32

Post #: 43967157
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Originally posted by Silverchair: ↑

Any risk/benefit analysis seems to indicate short sellers have got it wrong here IMO and your $50 fair value is not too far away.

Some notes on Clinuvel:
*Profitable and holding about $60 million cash (this would be a major reason for shorting a company if these factors were absent)
*Sales into worlds biggest EPP market imminent - perhaps next week.
*Plenty of EU growth to come including France, perhaps UK
*TGA application in progress for future Australian sales
*Upcoming FDA meeting for Vitiligo (massive future growth here)
*DNA repair seems like massive future potential
*VP plus another indication soon hopefully (more growth)
*Broker sphene has them valued over $50, Moelis over $30 and even morningstar quant has them over $30
*Current share price seems attractive IMO, not paying a premium price by any means and compares well to other biotechs
*Overall massive growth ahead and EPS growth ahead of what is already a profitable outfit
*About 4.7 million shares must be bought back by shortsellers who would seem to have an average sell price of circa $25

Some notes on the short sellers:
*They have already sold about 9.5% of fake shares into the market of CUV and depressed its price
*Price drop in large part due to shorts - no directors, large holders declaring any sales
*Possibly not too many fake borrowed shares left to short
*They have a pretty low sale price of not much more than $25 so they continue to short to keep price in check
*They have picked a tight register who seems to hold onto their shares and they can't close short positions without losing
*They have picked a profitable, cashed up outfit with massive GROWTH to come - totally wrong choice of stock to short
*Shorts have been stubborn but EPS growth over coming years will force them to buyback the fake shares
*Could have shorted 80% or more other companies and closed position and made money by now but look like losing here with CUV
*Seems that most of selling volume on a daily basis is from shorts
*Why were they shorting from 9/3 to 13/3 - took price from $15.82 to $14.81 but it required 0.72% of fake/borrowed shares to do this - that is some 350000 shares sold into a lightly traded stock! Missed opportunity to buyback there and how will they make money on those sales.

All IMO and DYOR. Obviously COVID 19 adds a huge uncertainty to everything, but healthcare is probably the best segment to be invested in right now as it has been for the last decade or more. Possible large short/ bot attack today and tomorrow leading into Easter break as this seems to be a favoured tactic of creating fear over a long weekend and hoping for some real sellers when trading resumes on Tuesday.

Expand

Hardcore short attack underway this morning. As I predicted yesterday it would happen over Wednesday/Thursday to put fear into holders heading into the Easter break and hope for some genuine sellers come Tuesday resumption of trading. So yesterday in the last 15 minutes of trading the price went from $20.7 to $20 and this morning from $20.5 down to low $19s so far. It's just a typical attack hoping someone, anyone might sell but not sure why they would when they have held this long and US sales will kick off next week most likely.
Would love ASIC to investigate this stuff, are the short sellers really allowing a genuine market to exist in CUV shares? GLTAH

CUV Price at posting: $19.50 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $14.30		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $716.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$14.21	$14.33	$13.69	$2.607M	186.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	658	$14.20

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.32	698	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	658	14.200
1	666	14.180
1	666	14.160
1	666	14.140
1	111	14.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.320	698	1
14.330	666	1
14.340	1000	1
14.350	666	2
14.370	766	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

CUV (ASX) Chart

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News: CUV UPDATE 1-U.S. FDA approves Clinuvel Pharma's rare genetic disorder treatment, page-107

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