I think I under-estimated the amount of time and approvals processes needed; and difficulty in sourcing funding and feedstock that would be required for a plant. It's easy to get caught up, and swept away by the narrative when we want to believe something is true. I am also starting to suspect that even once a site is built, the amount of energy it can generate is noteworthy, but isn't enormous compared with the state's grid (unless it earns a green premium). SA1 would
'power the equivalent of 5,120 homes', for example. These are long, laborious and time-consuming, commercially unproven (in Australia) projects just to power a single suburb. I've changed my tune completely from 12-18 months ago, I know. I initially thought we'd have SA1 built; bang. VIC1 stated a few months later; bang. QLD1 in build in early '22; bang! By now the 'long term development pipeline' projects would be coming through, with recurring revenue from the previously built sites. The whole point in listing on the ASX was to construct BOOM sites. Nothing has happened. You / I do not
owe a stock / company anything. I do not need to prove loyalty, or give management the benefit of the doubt. They need to earn my loyalty over time. In my mind they have failed.
@1Naughty1 I think DEL put out one, maybe two, "DEL Newsletter -- Volume X" to fill the gap between official ASX releases and total silence with employee interviews and discussions of the technology used and achievements reached. They were an excellent idea. Even that stopped a long time ago. The impression one gets is of a company, in mining terms, 'on care and maintenance'. Treading water. I'd love to be wrong.
Even in the future planning of day-to-day operations, it must be an immense task to secure contracts for the supply of feedstock every single day to keep the plant running with tonnes of restaurant waste and farm waste. RichGro works because they are providing their own material, on site into the bio-digester. The same with BLM which supplies its own oat husks. YV has a readily-available, existing supply of waste to digest. Ditto the NZ site. I read once that without the free oat husks (interview with the BLM manager) their site would operate at a loss.
I often wrote here that DEL has tried to do too much, way too soon. The sensible thing would have been to have three or four sites planned and/or operating in the safe (WEM) home market of Perth with more stable energy pricing. Then, list on the ASX with plans for sites interstate. The NZ EPC build and rural SA EPC project was too much, too soon. Maybe you could operate a start-up tech company with a handful of people from your parents' garage, but these interstate and overseas bio-energy plants have proven themselves to be far too complex, in too many ways.
I'd love to see a BOOM site up and running, with all the kinks ironed out (planning, funding, and operationally) so that new sites are set-up almost like McDonald's or Bunnings would. They've done it a hundred times before and there's a clear set of procedures, flowcharts and people involved. From the beginning with DEL, the communications out of the company has been misleading, and at times bluster (Trumpish) and hyperbole. A feel of things being made up as they went along, changed on the fly (the wheel being invented from scratch; and then re-invented months later), and communications which completely contradicted previous releases. I don't want to be reading company releases and trying to translate spin.
As you say, "Biogas energy is recognised as being in its infancy here in Australia and this alone creates difficulty in raising funding to develop projects", which is why I think DEL in its current condition is
not an investment-quality stock. It's pure speculation whether or not this $6m market cap company ever succeeds. I would argue a snapshot of the company today, versus where it was at listing three years ago, show two very different pictures.
They have some good ideas, good people, and as an organisation have a lot of valuable learning and knowledge about bio-energy. There are a handful of businesses in the towns near me which are probably worth a $6m market cap -- with 25+ employees (like DEL); but probably little debt, excellent profitability and real growth in a safe local market. There are great ~$100m small cap stocks on the ASX on < 10x PE ratios with a history of growth and stable dividends. DEL promised this at the IPO but, as the situation stands today, has nothing to offer me; which is why I sold. I have infinite patience for long term mining projects which sit on real ore deposits, and am not discouraged by a 85% price decline. I simply lost faith in the story being told and the people telling it.
