This is good concept of a company but there's a lot more than some fund managers show it to be, green pastures.
# This company will not share the upside the same way BHP will share if there's increase in profit. There is an indirect revenue cap on this. Plus they'll make some additional millions of BHP chooses to mine in higher quantity there. 1.232% is the royalty rate and the moving target is volume and Iron Ore rate. There is a reason why fund managers don't go into numbers on this, cause they are scared they hold it. Not now but projected volume for FY23 is 139 dmtpa, I'll put it out here. You do the maths here.
# There is a company on Toronto Exchange that makes 7% on IOC and they've got RIO by its nose. Just saying.
# People who have done valuation on this have made the most classic mistake of assigning it a terminal value. There should be no terminal value as
mining is a finite business and so is royalty on a depleting asset.
#In theory, this would be trading on div yield expectation, which is almost an earn yield expectation. This is where investors have a choice of owing stock in another non-cyclical companies who pay more than 5% yield + franking credits. DRR is just a deal but not the only deal in town.
# Is int-rate moving up next year or two? Yes it is. So this would make current discount rate higher for NPV.
So you put 139, 1.232%, IO price, BHP discretion to mine, Int-rate direction, and limited upside at 1.232% all together and then you get a very different picture.
I almost forgot to mention "share dilution" as well.
There will be plenty of chance to pick this up
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Last
$3.56 |
Change
-0.160(4.30%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.882B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.72 | $3.73 | $3.55 | $3.862M | 1.075M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 6567 | $3.56 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$3.58 | 4624 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 6567 | 3.560 |
6 | 19768 | 3.550 |
3 | 14763 | 3.540 |
5 | 19084 | 3.530 |
3 | 6070 | 3.520 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.580 | 4624 | 2 |
3.600 | 4505 | 1 |
3.610 | 4505 | 1 |
3.620 | 4505 | 1 |
3.630 | 14505 | 2 |
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