News: ECF Elanor Commercial Property Fund I Says FY24 Distribution Guidance Of 8.5 Au Cents Per..., page-4

I'm late to this, but CMW looks to have a way out with some asset sales to help with the gearing problem. There was some relief rallying going on there. However, over the last year, CMW is down by 30%. By comparison, ECF is down 20% which is similar to COF and GDI (close to 18% down).

The big question hanging over ECF is the WorkZone West property. The lease ends in August 2025. Back in 2020, they were getting $794 per square meter at the WorkZone West property, which has been increasing at 4% per year (the lease was negotiated during the booming times near 2012). So, they might be raking in $893 to $928 per square meter in 2024 When that lease ends, it's a big question mark as to what the vacancy rate will be and what they'll get per square meter. A decent guess is $635 per square meter, which is 30% lower than what they are probably getting now; furthermore, the building might only be 60 to 70% leased for FY 2026, if ECF manages to convert many of the subleases into direct leases. No matter how you look at it, realistically, ECF is likely to endure a material decrease in rental revenue in FY 2026.

My sense is that brokers/analysts are estimating a full year down time at WorkZone West for FY 2026, which seems rather conservative, given the subleases currently in place. Anyone have some good insights into ECF's projected FY 2026 FFO?