Thanks for reaching out to me.I last wrote in January, had...

Thanks for reaching out to me.

I last wrote in January, had exited around the 50 mark when the offer was made. Before that I had been writing nearly every day on ESS thread.

After selling, I continued to write for some time. Then those who think that by their rambling they make the most contribution and only their opinion counts started bothering me. If I was holding I would have continued. But as I was not, I thought its not worth. Its a similar situation - you come across a drunk/idiot on the bus who is arguing/shouting nonsense - you can confront and continue, but if you have reached your journey, then its better to get down. A well known say - Never argue with certain type of people, as they will bring you to their own level and beat you, as they have more experience in that. Funnily enough, they also have a lot of sustenance, because it does not take much, and I can still see them here in their full blossom.

This was the post I wrote on the last day -

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-essential-and-tlea-to-enter-into-scheme-of-arrangement.7171246/page-2#post-65805387

For those interested in my Daily Report, I do one here and can have a look. This is today's one.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-daily-report.7085637/page-4#post-67589963

Regarding ESS, I have still not bought back. I had a good journey last time as I had bought most around 20s. We were languishing around early 30s for quite some time. So when the opportunity and jump came, I bailed out. Also thinking about the uncertainity and how long this will go on.

We all know what has gone - it has been discussed by one and all, so no point adding my comment. I felt when ESS got the offer, it was opportunistic and good for shareholders. I know many felt that offer is too low and frankly I also felt that, having seen prices in 70s. After January, Li stocks have not done well. Eg if the offer had not come and if we look at how other Li stocks (generally not every Li stock), there was a good chance ESS may have slipped around early 20s - just based on average performance. Anyone interested can check the last Weekly Report I did -

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-weekly-report.6951924/page-2#post-67526457

I feel ESS is in a peculiar and strange situation now. After having touched 58.5, it has now dropped just under 30% when it touched 42. It is still trading in this low to mid 40s - not sure whether it will continue till another announcement/offer or go up and down.

It may go up if someone tries to accumulate. But MIN hold around 20% (have not checked if they have reduced). So any new entrant would be very wary to have such a holder on the books. So best case scenario would be MIN making an offer which hopefully shareholders would agree to.

It could go down further if status quo is maintained and if SP does not move, say beyond 45 for sometime. Then some may exit putting pressure, or if MIN itself does no more buying and also becomes a deterrent for new buyer - then price could slide down. MIN may not mind that. If it is interested in putting an offer, it suits them to have lowest SP so that offer becomes attractive.

The above points that I have said is just my thoughts - I have not done an in-depth analysis and looked thru everything - so my assumptions and thinking could be completely wrong.

At this stage I do not have plans to buy ESS unless it becomes very attractive. One of the things that I had said many times in my posts is that ESS board always wants to sell assets, never develop themselves. Hence if you look at registry they would have portions (stake/stock) in a number of other companies whom they have sold. They were never interested in developing and producing at Pioneer Dome for that reason only. In the whole of 2022, they just did one drill (talking from memory but I may be right). All previous projects they did something similar. So I had known towards the end of last year that they are looking to offload. This type of talk I had put in my previous posts as well. So for me to buy now the price has to be very attractive or some other development. I still watch and read everyday. So I am alert if something happens

I wish all holders that something really good happens here. Many posters we used to cross-talk, so there is some affinity as well. I know some may still want to trash this, its all right - I know there are all sorts of people in this world and we learn to live with them, so it does not faze me.

All the best, and more importantly, good luck to all holders.