"killing a 50c deal to squeeze a 45c deal out of shareholders is...

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readyaimfire

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22/04/23

18:11

Post #: 67411090
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Originally posted by gberra ↑

As others has calculated on hot copper eg 2ic. The NPV8% of ESS for Min at a spod price of $1,500 ( compared to current $2,500 ) is about $600 mil. It makes sense that Min want this. At 75c ESS is $200 mil. That’s a $400 mil profit in NPV 8% for Min. If min play hard ball and try to work the situation they may be even be able to pick this up for 45c ie say $120 mil in several months. Ie instead of gaining $400 mil they gain $480 mil. This would be tricky and not necessarily successful. For the sake of that extra 80 mil you risk having to pay more eg if the spod price goes up, or they have more exploration success and it also damages Mins reputation - ie killing a 50c deal to squeeze a 45c deal out of shareholders is pretty nasty. I’m going to stay optimistic and think that Min will make an offer sooner rather than later and try to pick ESS up for 60-70c, pocket the $400 -440 mil NPV and not complicate things or take any risks. As I have mentioned multiple times I think Min have been very reasonable in the past, at times even generous IMO. Tianqi know all this. They may purchase a cheap 20% on the market then make another bid eg 55c and either pick up ESS cheap or more likely make a quick profit if Min come over the top. This may not happen but it’s what I would do if I was Tianqi as it’s hard to argue the logic - easy profit or cheap resource. All IMO. Fingers crossed.

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"killing a 50c deal to squeeze a 45c deal out of shareholders is pretty nasty." Nasty for ESS Great for MIN even better for MIN if they just let ESS slowly suffocate. After all their job is to look after MIN shareholders.

I hope your right and they make an offer of 60-70cents next week

ESS Price at posting: 46.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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"killing a 50c deal to squeeze a 45c deal out of shareholders is...

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